UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Israel Adesanya (13-4). Adesanya is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 254 points above Adesanya's 1559. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Strickland is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Adesanya brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Strickland the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Strickland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Israel Adesanya over Sean Strickland. The model is firm on this one: Adesanya at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Strickland at 17% implied while our model sees 22% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Volkov (12-5) taking on Tai Tuivasa (8-8). Volkov is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Volkov is rated at 1754 — 647 points above Tuivasa's 1107. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkov throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tuivasa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Volkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkov over Tai Tuivasa. The model is firm on this one: Volkov at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Volkov at 68% implied while our model sees 79% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Manel Kape (6-3) taking on Felipe dos Santos (1-2). Santos is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Kape is rated at 1586 — 679 points above Santos's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kape throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kape is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manel Kape over Felipe dos Santos. The model gives Kape a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Justin Tafa (4-4) taking on Austen Lane (1-3). Lane is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Tafa is rated at 938 — 155 points above Lane's 783. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lane throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Tafa over Austen Lane. The model gives Tafa a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tyson Pedro (6-4) taking on Anton Turkalj (0-3).

Pedro is rated at 1015 — 289 points above Turkalj's 726. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pedro throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Turkalj is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Pedro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anton Turkalj over Tyson Pedro. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Turkalj at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Carlos Ulberg (8-1) taking on Da Woon Jung (4-3-1).

Ulberg is rated at 1803 — 824 points above Jung's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ulberg rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ulberg's striker game against Jung's wrestler approach. Ulberg brings a versatile approach, while Jung looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulberg throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jung is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Jung has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Ulberg over Da Woon Jung. The model gives Ulberg a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Chepe Mariscal (5-0) taking on Jack Jenkins (3-2).

Mariscal is rated at 1275 — 237 points above Jenkins's 1038. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mariscal rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Mariscal's wrestler game against Jenkins's striker approach. Mariscal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jenkins brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mariscal throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Mariscal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Mariscal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chepe Mariscal over Jack Jenkins. The model gives Mariscal a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jamie Mullarkey (6-6) taking on John Makdessi (11-8). Mullarkey is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Makdessi carries a modest Elo edge (989 to 947), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mullarkey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamie Mullarkey over John Makdessi. The model is firm on this one: Mullarkey at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Mullarkey at 69% implied while our model sees 78% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Nasrat Haqparast (10-4) taking on Landon Quinones (0-1).

Haqparast is rated at 1235 — 349 points above Quinones's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Haqparast rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Haqparast throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Haqparast is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Quinones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nasrat Haqparast over Landon Quinones. The model gives Haqparast a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Charles Radtke (3-2) taking on Blood Diamond (0-2). Diamond is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Radtke is rated at 1082 — 291 points above Diamond's 791. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diamond throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Diamond is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Radtke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Radtke over Blood Diamond. The model gives Radtke a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Gabriel Miranda (1-2) taking on Shane Young (2-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Miranda.

Miranda carries a modest Elo edge (802 to 742), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Young throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Miranda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Young has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shane Young over Gabriel Miranda. The model gives Young a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 40% for Miranda, but our model sees only 35%. That 4-point gap favoring Young is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Kevin Jousset (2-1) taking on Kiefer Crosbie (0-2). Jousset is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Jousset is rated at 984 — 238 points above Crosbie's 746. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Crosbie throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Crosbie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Crosbie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Jousset over Kiefer Crosbie. The model gives Jousset a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Jousset at 60% implied while our model sees 63% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.