UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
Saturday, September 9, 2023·Sydney, New South Wales, Australia·12 fights
Model: 8/12(67%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightMISS
Sean Strickland won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Strickland 19%81% Adesanya
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
STRONGMarket: 17% (+1.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -439(favors Adesanya)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Strickland)
HeavyweightHIT
Alexander Volkov won by Submission (R2)
Volkov 72%28% Tuivasa
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+3.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +145(favors Volkov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Volkov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Tuivasa)
FlyweightHIT
Manel Kape won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kape 82%18% Santos
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+4.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +308(favors Kape)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Kape)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Kape)
HeavyweightHIT
Justin Tafa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tafa 65%35% Lane
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEANMarket: 66% (-1.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +122(favors Tafa)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Lane)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lane)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Tyson Pedro won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pedro 49%51% Turkalj
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (-0.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +145(favors Pedro)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Pedro)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Turkalj)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Carlos Ulberg won by Submission (R3)
Ulberg 75%25% Jung
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (+2.2% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +231(favors Ulberg)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.8(favors Ulberg)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Jung)
FeatherweightMISS
Chepe Mariscal won by KO/TKO (R2)
Mariscal 37%63% Jenkins
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 34% (+2.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -49(favors Jenkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Mariscal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Mariscal)
LightweightHIT
Jamie Mullarkey won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mullarkey 77%23% Makdessi
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+8.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -100(favors Makdessi)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Makdessi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Mullarkey)
LightweightHIT
Nasrat Haqparast won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Haqparast 85%15% Quinones
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+5.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +273(favors Haqparast)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.9(favors Haqparast)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Haqparast)
Early Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Charles Radtke won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Radtke 51%49% Diamond
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +241(favors Radtke)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Diamond)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Diamond)
FeatherweightMISS
Gabriel Miranda won by Submission (R1)
Miranda 30%70% Young
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 40% (-10.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +5(favors Miranda)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Young)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Miranda)
WelterweightHIT
Kevin Jousset won by Submission (R1)
Jousset 65%35% Crosbie
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 60% (+5.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Crosbie)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Crosbie)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Crosbie)