UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
Saturday, August 19, 2023·Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightMISS
Sean O'Malley won by KO/TKO (R2)
O'Malley 31%69% Sterling
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-0.9% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -398(favors Sterling)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors O'Malley)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Sterling)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Zhang Weili won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Weili 53%47% Lemos
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +85(favors Weili)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Weili)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Weili)
WelterweightHIT
Ian Machado Garry won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Garry 82%18% Magny
STRONGMarket: 80% (+2.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -76(favors Magny)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.2(favors Garry)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Magny)
BantamweightHIT
Mario Bautista won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bautista 58%42% Blackshear
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +174(favors Bautista)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Bautista)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Bautista)
BantamweightHIT
Marlon Vera won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vera 65%35% Munhoz
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+1.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +193(favors Vera)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Vera)
MiddleweightHIT
Brad Tavares won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tavares 70%30% Weidman
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (-0.6% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -259(favors Weidman)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Tavares)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.8(favors Weidman)
MiddleweightHIT
Gregory Rodrigues won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rodrigues 77%23% Tiuliulin
STRONGMarket: 75% (+1.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +188(favors Rodrigues)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Rodrigues)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Rodrigues)
LightweightMISS
Kurt Holobaugh won by Submission (R2)
Holobaugh 23%77% Hubbard
STRONGMarket: 40% (-16.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -305(favors Hubbard)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Holobaugh)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Holobaugh)
BantamweightMISS
Brad Katona won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Katona 44%56% Gibson
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +78(favors Katona)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Katona)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Gibson)
MiddleweightHIT
Andre Petroski won by Decision - Split (R3)
Petroski 75%25% Meerschaert
STRONGMarket: 68% (+7.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +211(favors Petroski)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Petroski)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.6(favors Petroski)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Natalia Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 63%37% Lee
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +113(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Lee)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Karine Silva won by Submission (R1)
Silva 46%54% Moroz
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-11.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +75(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Moroz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Silva)