UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features Sean O'Malley (10-3) taking on Aljamain Sterling (16-5). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring O'Malley.

O'Malley carries a modest Elo edge (1748 to 1683), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is O'Malley's striker game against Sterling's wrestler approach. O'Malley brings a versatile approach, while Sterling looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Malley throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sterling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. O'Malley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Sean O'Malley. We're leaning Sterling here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Zhang Weili (10-2) taking on Amanda Lemos (9-4).

Weili is rated at 1649 — 314 points above Lemos's 1335. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Weili rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weili throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Weili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Lemos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zhang Weili over Amanda Lemos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Weili at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Ian Machado Garry (9-1) taking on Neil Magny (24-12). Magny will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Garry is rated at 1787 — 517 points above Magny's 1270. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Garry's striker game against Magny's all-rounder approach. Garry brings a versatile approach, while Magny is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garry throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Garry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ian Machado Garry over Neil Magny. The model is firm on this one: Garry at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mario Bautista (10-3) taking on Da'Mon Blackshear (5-3-1). Blackshear will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bautista is rated at 1566 — 350 points above Blackshear's 1216. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Blackshear has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Bautista is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Blackshear looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Blackshear the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bautista throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bautista is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Blackshear has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mario Bautista over Da'Mon Blackshear. The model gives Bautista a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Vera (15-9) taking on Pedro Munhoz (10-9). Vera is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Vera is rated at 1460 — 249 points above Munhoz's 1211. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Vera's knockout artist game against Munhoz's all-rounder approach. Vera is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Munhoz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Munhoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marlon Vera over Pedro Munhoz. We're leaning Vera here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Chris Weidman (12-7). Weidman will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Weidman at 1060 versus Tavares at 925. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Tavares's striker game against Weidman's wrestler approach. Tavares brings a versatile approach, while Weidman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Tavares over Chris Weidman. We're leaning Tavares here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Gregory Rodrigues (8-3) taking on Denis Tiuliulin (1-4).

Rodrigues is rated at 1515 — 759 points above Tiuliulin's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rodrigues is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Tiuliulin brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Rodrigues the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodrigues throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodrigues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Rodrigues has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gregory Rodrigues over Denis Tiuliulin. The model is firm on this one: Rodrigues at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Kurt Holobaugh (2-6) taking on Austin Hubbard (4-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Holobaugh at 833, Hubbard at 817. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Holobaugh's all-rounder game against Hubbard's striker approach. Holobaugh is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hubbard brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holobaugh throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Holobaugh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Hubbard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Austin Hubbard over Kurt Holobaugh. The model is firm on this one: Hubbard at 77%. The market implies 40% for Holobaugh, but our model sees only 23%. That 17-point gap favoring Hubbard is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brad Katona (4-4) taking on Cody Gibson (3-6). Gibson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Katona at 838, Gibson at 843. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Katona's striker game against Gibson's wrestler approach. Katona brings a versatile approach, while Gibson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Katona throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gibson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Gibson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Gibson over Brad Katona. The model gives Gibson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Andre Petroski (8-3) taking on Gerald Meerschaert (12-12). Meerschaert will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Petroski at 967 versus Meerschaert at 867. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Petroski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Meerschaert the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petroski throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Petroski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Meerschaert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Petroski over Gerald Meerschaert. The model is firm on this one: Petroski at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Petroski at 68% implied while our model sees 75% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Natalia Silva (7-0) taking on Andrea Lee (5-8). Lee is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Silva is rated at 1618 — 754 points above Lee's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Silva rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Silva's striker game against Lee's all-rounder approach. Silva brings a versatile approach, while Lee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Natalia Silva over Andrea Lee. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Karine Silva (5-1) taking on Maryna Moroz (6-5).

Silva is rated at 1237 — 285 points above Moroz's 952. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Moroz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moroz throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Moroz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maryna Moroz over Karine Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moroz at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Silva, but our model sees only 46%. That 11-point gap favoring Moroz is worth watching.