UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos
Saturday, August 12, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightMISS
Vicente Luque won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Luque 45%55% Anjos
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Anjos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Luque)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Anjos)
FeatherweightMISS
Cub Swanson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Swanson 23%77% Dawodu
STRONGMarket: 33% (-10.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +17(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Swanson)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Khalil Rountree Jr. won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jr. 40%60% Daukaus
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +58(favors Jr.)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Daukaus)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Daukaus)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Iasmin Lucindo won by Submission (R2)
Lucindo 71%29% Viana
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+8.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -97(favors Viana)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Lucindo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Lucindo)
MiddleweightMISS
AJ Dobson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dobson 34%66% Nchukwi
CONFIDENTMarket: 43% (-9.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +70(favors Dobson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Nchukwi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Dobson)
MiddleweightHIT
Josh Fremd won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fremd 69%31% Pickett
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-5.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +240(favors Fremd)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Pickett)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Fremd)
BantamweightHIT
Marcus McGhee won by KO/TKO (R1)
McGhee 61%39% Buys
LEAN
→Elo gap: +371(favors McGhee)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors McGhee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Buys)
LightweightHIT
Terrance McKinney won by KO/TKO (R1)
McKinney 81%19% Breeden
STRONGMarket: 71% (+10.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +72(favors McKinney)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Breeden)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors McKinney)
FeatherweightMISS
Isaac Dulgarian won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dulgarian 35%65% Marshall
LEANMarket: 40% (-4.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -13(favors Marshall)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Marshall)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Marshall)
HeavyweightHIT
Martin Buday won by Submission (R1)
Buday 70%30% Parisian
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+4.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +283(favors Buday)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Buday)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Parisian)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Jaqueline Amorim won by KO/TKO (R3)
Amorim 63%37% Ruiz
LEAN
→Elo gap: -101(favors Ruiz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Ruiz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Ruiz)
BantamweightMISS
Da'Mon Blackshear won by Submission (R1)
Blackshear 49%51% Johnson
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +49(favors Blackshear)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Blackshear)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Blackshear)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Luana Santos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Santos 54%46% Miller
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +10(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Miller)