UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Vicente Luque (16-7) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14). Luque is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Anjos carries a modest Elo edge (1282 to 1250), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Luque is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Anjos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Anjos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Vicente Luque. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Anjos at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (14-10) taking on Hakeem Dawodu (6-3). Dawodu will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Swanson is rated at 1255 — 166 points above Dawodu's 1090. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Swanson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Dawodu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hakeem Dawodu over Cub Swanson. The model is firm on this one: Dawodu at 77%. The market implies 33% for Swanson, but our model sees only 23%. That 11-point gap favoring Dawodu is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-6) taking on Chris Daukaus (4-3).

Jr. is rated at 1506 — 398 points above Daukaus's 1108. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Daukaus throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Daukaus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Daukaus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Daukaus over Khalil Rountree Jr.. The model gives Daukaus a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Iasmin Lucindo (4-2) taking on Polyana Viana (4-6).

Lucindo is rated at 1309 — 442 points above Viana's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lucindo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Viana is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Viana the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lucindo throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lucindo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Lucindo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Iasmin Lucindo over Polyana Viana. We're leaning Lucindo here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lucindo at 63% implied while our model sees 71% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features AJ Dobson (1-2) taking on Tafon Nchukwi (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Dobson at 836 versus Nchukwi at 716. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nchukwi throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Dobson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Nchukwi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tafon Nchukwi over AJ Dobson. We're leaning Nchukwi here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 43% for Dobson, but our model sees only 34%. That 9-point gap favoring Nchukwi is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Josh Fremd (2-3) taking on Jamie Pickett (2-6). Pickett will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fremd is rated at 894 — 221 points above Pickett's 673. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Fremd's wrestler game against Pickett's striker approach. Fremd looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pickett brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pickett throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Fremd is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Pickett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Fremd over Jamie Pickett. We're leaning Fremd here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 75% for Fremd, but our model sees only 69%. That 5-point gap favoring Pickett is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marcus McGhee (4-0) taking on JP Buys (0-3). McGhee is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

McGhee is rated at 1329 — 650 points above Buys's 679. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. McGhee rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGhee throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Buys is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. McGhee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcus McGhee over JP Buys. The model gives McGhee a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Terrance McKinney (7-4) taking on Mike Breeden (0-3). McKinney will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: McKinney at 1110 versus Breeden at 972. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Breeden throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McKinney is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. McKinney has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Terrance McKinney over Mike Breeden. The model is firm on this one: McKinney at 81%. Notably, the betting market has McKinney at 71% implied while our model sees 81% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Isaac Dulgarian (2-1) taking on Francis Marshall (2-2).

Dulgarian carries a modest Elo edge (999 to 933), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marshall throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Marshall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Dulgarian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francis Marshall over Isaac Dulgarian. The model gives Marshall a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 40% for Dulgarian, but our model sees only 35%. That 5-point gap favoring Marshall is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Martin Buday (6-1) taking on Josh Parisian (2-4).

Buday is rated at 1183 — 411 points above Parisian's 772. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Buday's all-rounder game against Parisian's striker approach. Buday is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Parisian brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buday throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Buday has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Martin Buday over Josh Parisian. We're leaning Buday here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Buday at 65% implied while our model sees 70% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jaqueline Amorim (4-1) taking on Montserrat Conejo Ruiz (1-3). Amorim is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Amorim is rated at 1177 — 457 points above Ruiz's 720. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Amorim rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ruiz throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Amorim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jaqueline Amorim over Montserrat Conejo Ruiz. The model gives Amorim a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Da'Mon Blackshear (5-3-1) taking on Jose Johnson (1-2).

Blackshear is rated at 1216 — 354 points above Johnson's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Blackshear rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blackshear throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Blackshear is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Johnson over Da'Mon Blackshear. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Luana Santos (4-1) taking on Juliana Miller (2-2).

Santos is rated at 1277 — 367 points above Miller's 910. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luana Santos over Juliana Miller. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Santos, but our model sees only 54%. That 3-point gap favoring Miller is worth watching.