UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Justin Gaethje (10-5) taking on Dustin Poirier (22-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Gaethje at 1920 versus Poirier at 1779. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Gaethje brings a versatile approach, while Poirier is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Poirier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaethje throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Gaethje has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Gaethje over Dustin Poirier. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gaethje at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Gaethje at 42% implied while our model sees 54% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alex Pereira (10-2) taking on Jan Blachowicz (12-8-2).

Pereira is rated at 2083 — 380 points above Blachowicz's 1703. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pereira's striker game against Blachowicz's all-rounder approach. Pereira brings a versatile approach, while Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pereira throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Pereira over Jan Blachowicz. The model gives Pereira a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Pereira at 49% implied while our model sees 56% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-11) taking on Marcos Rogerio de Lima (11-7). Lewis is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lewis at 1493 versus Lima at 1346. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lewis's striker game against Lima's wrestler approach. Lewis brings a versatile approach, while Lima looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima over Derrick Lewis. We're leaning Lima here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (15-12-1) taking on Tony Ferguson (15-9). Ferguson will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Green at 1371 versus Ferguson at 1255. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 6.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferguson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: King Green over Tony Ferguson. The model is firm on this one: Green at 75%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-12) taking on Michael Chiesa (15-7). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Chiesa is rated at 1566 — 191 points above Holland's 1375. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Chiesa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Chiesa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Chiesa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Holland over Michael Chiesa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Holland at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Holland, but our model sees only 53%. That 4-point gap favoring Chiesa is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Gabriel Bonfim (6-1) taking on Trevin Giles (7-7).

Bonfim is rated at 1698 — 769 points above Giles's 929. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonfim rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Bonfim looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Giles is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bonfim the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bonfim throws significantly more leather — a 8.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Giles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Giles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Bonfim over Trevin Giles. We're leaning Bonfim here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 75% for Bonfim, but our model sees only 67%. That 8-point gap favoring Giles is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features CJ Vergara (3-5) taking on Vinicius Salvador (0-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Vergara at 746, Salvador at 752. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vergara throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Salvador is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Vergara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vinicius Salvador over CJ Vergara. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Salvador at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Vergara, but our model sees only 47%. That 14-point gap favoring Salvador is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Roman Kopylov (6-5) taking on Claudio Ribeiro (1-3).

Kopylov is rated at 1372 — 497 points above Ribeiro's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kopylov throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribeiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Kopylov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roman Kopylov over Claudio Ribeiro. The model is firm on this one: Kopylov at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Kopylov at 67% implied while our model sees 75% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-8) taking on Darrius Flowers (1-3). Matthews is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Matthews is rated at 1398 — 361 points above Flowers's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Flowers has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Matthews over Darrius Flowers. We're leaning Matthews here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Matthews at 71% implied while our model sees 74% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Uros Medic (7-3) taking on Matthew Semelsberger (5-6). Semelsberger will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Medic is rated at 1584 — 680 points above Semelsberger's 903. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medic throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Semelsberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Medic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matthew Semelsberger over Uros Medic. The model gives Semelsberger a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Miranda Maverick (8-4) taking on Priscila Cachoeira (5-8). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Cachoeira.

Maverick is rated at 1318 — 347 points above Cachoeira's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maverick rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Maverick's all-rounder game against Cachoeira's striker approach. Maverick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cachoeira brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cachoeira throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Maverick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Maverick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miranda Maverick over Priscila Cachoeira. The model is firm on this one: Maverick at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Maverick at 72% implied while our model sees 88% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.