UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Amir Albazi (5-2) taking on Kai Kara-France (8-5).

Kara-France carries a modest Elo edge (1397 to 1342), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Albazi's all-rounder game against Kara-France's striker approach. Albazi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kara-France brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kara-France throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Albazi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Albazi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amir Albazi over Kai Kara-France. The model gives Albazi a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-13) taking on Daniel Pineda (5-8). Caceres is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Caceres is rated at 1264 — 230 points above Pineda's 1034. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Caceres's knockout artist game against Pineda's wrestler approach. Caceres is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Pineda looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pineda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over Daniel Pineda. We're leaning Caceres here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Caceres at 64% implied while our model sees 73% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-18) taking on Jesse Butler (0-2). Butler is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Miller is rated at 1295 — 500 points above Butler's 795. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Butler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Jesse Butler. The model is firm on this one: Miller at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Miller at 69% implied while our model sees 76% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Tim Elliott (10-11) taking on Victor Altamirano (2-4). Altamirano will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Elliott is rated at 1232 — 423 points above Altamirano's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Elliott's wrestler game against Altamirano's striker approach. Elliott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Altamirano brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Altamirano throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Altamirano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Victor Altamirano over Tim Elliott. The model gives Altamirano a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Elliott, but our model sees only 40%. That 22-point gap favoring Altamirano is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Karine Silva (5-2) taking on Ketlen Souza (3-3). Silva is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Silva is rated at 1323 — 168 points above Souza's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Souza is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karine Silva over Ketlen Souza. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for Silva, but our model sees only 58%. That 7-point gap favoring Souza is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-6-1) taking on Abubakar Nurmagomedov (2-2).

Santos is rated at 1215 — 180 points above Nurmagomedov's 1035. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Abubakar Nurmagomedov over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. The model gives Nurmagomedov a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 46% for Santos, but our model sees only 36%. That 10-point gap favoring Nurmagomedov is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Daniel Santos (4-1) taking on Johnny Munoz (2-4). Munoz is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Santos is rated at 1409 — 483 points above Munoz's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Santos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Munoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Santos over Johnny Munoz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 66% for Santos, but our model sees only 52%. That 14-point gap favoring Munoz is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Don'Tale Mayes (4-7) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-18). Mayes is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Arlovski at 993 versus Mayes at 907. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Mayes's striker game against Arlovski's all-rounder approach. Mayes brings a versatile approach, while Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mayes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Don'Tale Mayes over Andrei Arlovski. We're leaning Mayes here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Mayes at 55% implied while our model sees 67% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Castaneda (4-4) taking on Muin Gafurov (2-3). Castaneda will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Castaneda carries a modest Elo edge (1163 to 1125), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Castaneda throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Castaneda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Gafurov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Muin Gafurov over John Castaneda. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gafurov at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 53% for Castaneda, but our model sees only 47%. That 6-point gap favoring Gafurov is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Muhammad Naimov (5-2) taking on Jamie Mullarkey (6-7). Mullarkey is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Naimov is rated at 1165 — 205 points above Mullarkey's 961. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Naimov's wrestler game against Mullarkey's striker approach. Naimov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Mullarkey brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mullarkey throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mullarkey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Naimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamie Mullarkey over Muhammad Naimov. We're leaning Mullarkey here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Elise Reed (4-5) taking on Jinh Yu Frey (2-6).

Reed is rated at 944 — 218 points above Frey's 726. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Reed's striker game against Frey's all-rounder approach. Reed brings a versatile approach, while Frey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frey throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Reed is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Frey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elise Reed over Jinh Yu Frey. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Reed at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Reed, but our model sees only 51%. That 4-point gap favoring Frey is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Da'Mon Blackshear (5-4-1) taking on Luan Lacerda (1-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Blackshear.

Blackshear is rated at 1273 — 489 points above Lacerda's 783. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Blackshear rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lacerda throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lacerda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Blackshear has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Da'Mon Blackshear over Luan Lacerda. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Blackshear at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Philipe Lins (4-2) taking on Maxim Grishin (2-3).

Lins is rated at 1380 — 268 points above Grishin's 1113. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lins rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lins throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Grishin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maxim Grishin over Philipe Lins. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grishin at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.