UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
Saturday, May 6, 2023·Newark, New Jersey, USA·12 fights
Model: 6/12(50%)
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Main Card
BantamweightHIT
Aljamain Sterling won by Decision - Split (R5)
Sterling 61%39% Cejudo
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
LEANMarket: 48% (+13.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -97(favors Cejudo)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Cejudo)
WelterweightMISS
Belal Muhammad won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Muhammad 40%60% Burns
Over/UnderOver 69%
Under 31%Over 69%
LEANMarket: 42% (-1.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +9(favors Muhammad)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Muhammad)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Yan Xiaonan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Xiaonan 49%51% Andrade
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+9.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -137(favors Andrade)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.7(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Xiaonan)
FeatherweightHIT
Movsar Evloev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Evloev 89%11% Lopes
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 87% (+1.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +599(favors Evloev)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.6(favors Evloev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Evloev)
FeatherweightHIT
Charles Jourdain won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jourdain 65%35% Gracie
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEANMarket: 60% (+4.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -1(favors Gracie)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Jourdain)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Gracie)
Prelims
LightweightMISS
Matt Frevola won by KO/TKO (R1)
Frevola 39%61% Dober
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 33% (+6.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -185(favors Dober)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Frevola)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Kennedy Nzechukwu won by Submission (R2)
Nzechukwu 76%24% Clark
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
STRONGMarket: 62% (+13.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +79(favors Nzechukwu)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Nzechukwu)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Nzechukwu)
WelterweightHIT
Khaos Williams won by Decision - Split (R3)
Williams 60%40% Bedoya
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +456(favors Williams)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.9(favors Williams)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bedoya)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Virna Jandiroba won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jandiroba 40%60% Rodriguez
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
LEANMarket: 49% (-8.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -140(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Jandiroba)
Early Prelims
HeavyweightHIT
Parker Porter won by KO/TKO (R1)
Porter 59%41% Smith
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEANMarket: 61% (-2.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -100(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.4(favors Porter)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Porter)
MiddleweightMISS
Ikram Aliskerov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aliskerov 41%59% Hawes
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 63% (-22.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -79(favors Hawes)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.7(favors Hawes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Hawes)
MiddleweightMISS
Claudio Ribeiro won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ribeiro 45%55% Holmes
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-15.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +27(favors Ribeiro)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Holmes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Holmes)