UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Saturday, April 22, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 5/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Sergei Pavlovich won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pavlovich 50%50% Blaydes
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -131(favors Blaydes)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.3(favors Pavlovich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.9(favors Blaydes)
MiddleweightMISS
Bruno Silva won by KO/TKO (R1)
Silva 35%65% Tavares
LEANMarket: 40% (-4.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -194(favors Tavares)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Silva)
Lightweight
Green 66%34% Gordon
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (-3.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -34(favors Gordon)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.9(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Gordon)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Iasmin Lucindo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lucindo 86%14% Walker
STRONGMarket: 78% (+8.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +43(favors Lucindo)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Lucindo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Walker)
WelterweightMISS
Jeremiah Wells won by Decision - Split (R3)
Wells 36%64% Semelsberger
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +34(favors Wells)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Semelsberger)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Wells)
LightweightMISS
Christos Giagos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Giagos 47%53% Glenn
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -197(favors Glenn)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Giagos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.6(favors Giagos)
BantamweightHIT
Montel Jackson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jackson 93%7% Yahya
STRONGMarket: 84% (+8.4% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +4(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Jackson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Jackson)
Women's FeatherweightMISS
Norma Dumont won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dumont 42%58% Rosa
LEANMarket: 52% (-9.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +44(favors Dumont)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Rosa)
HeavyweightHIT
Mohammed Usman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Usman 51%49% Tafa
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+3.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +128(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Usman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Tafa)
FeatherweightMISS
William Gomis won by Decision - Split (R3)
Gomis 49%51% Marshall
TOSS-UPMarket: 35% (+13.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +5(favors Gomis)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Marshall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Gomis)
BantamweightHIT
Brady Hiestand won by KO/TKO (R3)
Hiestand 73%27% Danaa
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -18(favors Danaa)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Danaa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Hiestand)