UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Sergei Pavlovich (7-3) taking on Curtis Blaydes (13-5). Pavlovich will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pavlovich at 1663, Blaydes at 1634. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Pavlovich is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Blaydes brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Pavlovich the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pavlovich throws significantly more leather — a 7.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Blaydes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergei Pavlovich over Curtis Blaydes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pavlovich at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Bruno Silva (4-6) taking on Brad Tavares (16-10).

There's a real Elo separation here: Tavares at 925 versus Silva at 798. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Tavares over Bruno Silva. The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 40% for Silva, but our model sees only 35%. That 5-point gap favoring Tavares is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (13-12-1) taking on Jared Gordon (9-6). Green will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gordon carries a modest Elo edge (1209 to 1176), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Green's all-rounder game against Gordon's striker approach. Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gordon brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: King Green over Jared Gordon. We're leaning Green here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 70% for Green, but our model sees only 66%. That 4-point gap favoring Gordon is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Iasmin Lucindo (4-2) taking on Brogan Walker (0-2).

Lucindo is rated at 1309 — 542 points above Walker's 767. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lucindo throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lucindo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Iasmin Lucindo over Brogan Walker. The model is firm on this one: Lucindo at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Lucindo at 78% implied while our model sees 86% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Jeremiah Wells (4-2) taking on Matthew Semelsberger (5-5). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Semelsberger.

Wells is rated at 1254 — 393 points above Semelsberger's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Wells's wrestler game against Semelsberger's striker approach. Wells looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Semelsberger brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Semelsberger throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Wells is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Semelsberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matthew Semelsberger over Jeremiah Wells. The model gives Semelsberger a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Christos Giagos (6-7) taking on Ricky Glenn (4-5-1).

Giagos carries a modest Elo edge (940 to 886), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Giagos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Glenn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Giagos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Giagos throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Giagos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Glenn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricky Glenn over Christos Giagos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Glenn at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Montel Jackson (9-2) taking on Rani Yahya (13-5-1). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Jackson is rated at 1448 — 419 points above Yahya's 1030. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jackson rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jackson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Yahya looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Yahya the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Montel Jackson over Rani Yahya. The model is firm on this one: Jackson at 93%. Notably, the betting market has Jackson at 84% implied while our model sees 93% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Norma Dumont (8-2) taking on Karol Rosa (7-4).

Dumont is rated at 1546 — 345 points above Rosa's 1201. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dumont rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Dumont has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karol Rosa over Norma Dumont. The model gives Rosa a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 52% for Dumont, but our model sees only 42%. That 10-point gap favoring Rosa is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mohammed Usman (3-2) taking on Junior Tafa (2-4). Usman will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Usman is rated at 1087 — 259 points above Tafa's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Usman throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tafa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tafa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mohammed Usman over Junior Tafa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Usman at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Usman at 47% implied while our model sees 51% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features William Gomis (4-1) taking on Francis Marshall (2-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Gomis.

Gomis is rated at 1279 — 346 points above Marshall's 933. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marshall throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gomis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Gomis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francis Marshall over William Gomis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Marshall at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Gomis at 35% implied while our model sees 49% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brady Hiestand (2-1) taking on Batgerel Danaa (3-3).

Hiestand is rated at 1238 — 350 points above Danaa's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danaa throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hiestand is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Danaa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brady Hiestand over Batgerel Danaa. We're leaning Hiestand here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.