UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
Saturday, April 15, 2023·Kansas City, Missouri, USA
Model Record: 7/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightMISS
Max Holloway won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Holloway 31%69% Allen
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (-29.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +66(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Allen)
FeatherweightMISS
Edson Barboza won by KO/TKO (R1)
Barboza 43%57% Quarantillo
LEANMarket: 39% (+3.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -40(favors Quarantillo)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Quarantillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Quarantillo)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Azamat Murzakanov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Murzakanov 64%36% Jacoby
LEANMarket: 42% (+22.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -62(favors Jacoby)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Jacoby)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Murzakanov)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ion Cutelaba won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cutelaba 40%60% Boser
LEANMarket: 54% (-14.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -157(favors Boser)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Boser)
→Takedown rate advantage: +8.0(favors Cutelaba)
BantamweightMISS
Pedro Munhoz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Munhoz 22%78% Gutierrez
STRONGMarket: 33% (-11.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -138(favors Gutierrez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Munhoz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Gutierrez)
LightweightHIT
Rafa Garcia won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Garcia 81%19% Guida
STRONGMarket: 73% (+8.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Guida)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Guida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Garcia)
FeatherweightHIT
Bill Algeo won by Submission (R2)
Algeo 58%42% Brown
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +39(favors Algeo)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Algeo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Brown)
FlyweightMISS
Brandon Royval won by KO/TKO (R1)
Royval 21%79% Nicolau
STRONGMarket: 35% (-14.3% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -146(favors Nicolau)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Royval)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Nicolau)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Zak Cummings won by KO/TKO (R3)
Cummings 67%33% Herman
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+1.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +176(favors Cummings)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Herman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Herman)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Gillian Robertson won by Submission (R2)
Robertson 42%58% Rodriguez
LEANMarket: 54% (-12.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -6(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Rodriguez)
LightweightHIT
Daniel Zellhuber won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Zellhuber 67%33% Vannata
CONFIDENTMarket: 54% (+12.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -104(favors Vannata)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Vannata)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Vannata)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Denise Gomes won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gomes 43%57% Brasil
LEANMarket: 42% (+1.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -88(favors Brasil)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Gomes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Brasil)
BantamweightHIT
Gaston Bolanos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bolanos 64%36% Phillips
LEANMarket: 63% (+1.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +231(favors Bolanos)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Phillips)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Phillips)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Joselyne Edwards won by Decision - Split (R3)
Edwards 65%35% Pudilova
LEANMarket: 44% (+20.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +113(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Pudilova)