UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Arnold Allen (11-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Holloway.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 429 points above Allen's 1468. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Arnold Allen over Max Holloway. We're leaning Allen here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 61% for Holloway, but our model sees only 31%. That 30-point gap favoring Allen is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Billy Quarantillo (6-4). Barboza will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Barboza is rated at 1142 — 176 points above Quarantillo's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarantillo throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Quarantillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Barboza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Billy Quarantillo over Edson Barboza. The model gives Quarantillo a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Barboza at 39% implied while our model sees 43% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Azamat Murzakanov (5-0) taking on Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1). Jacoby is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Murzakanov is rated at 1573 — 200 points above Jacoby's 1374. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murzakanov rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Murzakanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Murzakanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Azamat Murzakanov over Dustin Jacoby. The model gives Murzakanov a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Murzakanov at 42% implied while our model sees 64% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1) taking on Tanner Boser (4-5).

Cutelaba is rated at 1147 — 162 points above Boser's 984. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boser throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.0 more per 15 minutes. Boser has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tanner Boser over Ion Cutelaba. The model gives Boser a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 54% for Cutelaba, but our model sees only 40%. That 14-point gap favoring Boser is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Pedro Munhoz (10-9) taking on Chris Gutierrez (10-3-1). Gutierrez is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gutierrez at 1298 versus Munhoz at 1211. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gutierrez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Gutierrez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Gutierrez over Pedro Munhoz. The model is firm on this one: Gutierrez at 78%. The market implies 33% for Munhoz, but our model sees only 22%. That 12-point gap favoring Gutierrez is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafa Garcia (5-4) taking on Clay Guida (18-18).

Garcia is rated at 1419 — 493 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Garcia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Guida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Garcia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafa Garcia over Clay Guida. The model is firm on this one: Garcia at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Garcia at 73% implied while our model sees 81% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Bill Algeo (5-4) taking on TJ Brown (3-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Algeo.

Algeo carries a modest Elo edge (914 to 876), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Algeo's striker game against Brown's wrestler approach. Algeo brings a versatile approach, while Brown looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Algeo throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Algeo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bill Algeo over TJ Brown. The model gives Algeo a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Royval (7-4) taking on Matheus Nicolau (7-3). Royval is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Royval is rated at 1314 — 281 points above Nicolau's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Royval is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Nicolau is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Royval the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Royval throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nicolau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Nicolau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matheus Nicolau over Brandon Royval. The model is firm on this one: Nicolau at 79%. The market implies 35% for Royval, but our model sees only 21%. That 14-point gap favoring Nicolau is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Zak Cummings (9-4) taking on Ed Herman (13-11).

Cummings is rated at 1357 — 312 points above Herman's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Cummings has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zak Cummings over Ed Herman. We're leaning Cummings here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Gillian Robertson (12-6) taking on Piera Rodriguez (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Robertson at 1352 versus Rodriguez at 1203. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Robertson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Robertson's wrestler game against Rodriguez's striker approach. Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rodriguez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Piera Rodriguez over Gillian Robertson. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 54% for Robertson, but our model sees only 42%. That 12-point gap favoring Rodriguez is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Daniel Zellhuber (3-2) taking on Lando Vannata (4-6-2). Zellhuber is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Zellhuber is rated at 1082 — 183 points above Vannata's 898. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vannata throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Vannata is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Zellhuber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Zellhuber over Lando Vannata. We're leaning Zellhuber here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Zellhuber at 54% implied while our model sees 67% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Denise Gomes (5-2) taking on Bruna Brasil (3-3). Brasil is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Gomes is rated at 1370 — 411 points above Brasil's 959. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Gomes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gomes throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Brasil is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Brasil has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bruna Brasil over Denise Gomes. The model gives Brasil a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Gaston Bolanos (2-1) taking on Aaron Phillips (0-3). Phillips is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Bolanos at 867 versus Phillips at 733. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phillips throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bolanos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gaston Bolanos over Aaron Phillips. The model gives Bolanos a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Joselyne Edwards (7-4) taking on Lucie Pudilova (3-7). Edwards will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Edwards is rated at 1320 — 517 points above Pudilova's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Edwards rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pudilova looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pudilova the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pudilova is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joselyne Edwards over Lucie Pudilova. The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Edwards at 44% implied while our model sees 65% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.