UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
Saturday, March 25, 2023·San Antonio, Texas, USA·10 fights
Model: 6/10(60%)
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Main Card
BantamweightHIT
Cory Sandhagen won by Decision - Split (R5)
Sandhagen 51%49% Vera
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-6.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +16(favors Sandhagen)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Sandhagen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Sandhagen)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Holly Holm won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holm 69%31% Santos
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+0.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +216(favors Holm)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Holm)
FeatherweightHIT
Nate Landwehr won by Submission (R2)
Landwehr 56%44% Lingo
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 65% (-9.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +18(favors Landwehr)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Landwehr)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Landwehr)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Maycee Barber won by Decision - Split (R3)
Barber 77%23% Lee
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 71% (+5.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +142(favors Barber)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Lee)
MiddleweightHIT
Albert Duraev won by Decision - Split (R3)
Duraev 54%46% Njokuani
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+14.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -240(favors Njokuani)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Njokuani)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Duraev)
FeatherweightMISS
Daniel Pineda won by Submission (R2)
Pineda 28%72% Lutz
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 29% (-0.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -22(favors Lutz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Lutz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Lutz)
Prelims
FeatherweightMISS
Lucas Alexander won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Alexander 47%53% Peterson
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+5.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -76(favors Peterson)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.7(favors Peterson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Peterson)
WelterweightMISS
Trevin Giles won by Decision - Split (R3)
Giles 44%56% Parsons
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 48% (-3.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -98(favors Parsons)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Parsons)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Parsons)
FlyweightHIT
CJ Vergara won by KO/TKO (R2)
Vergara 55%45% Lacerda
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +257(favors Vergara)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Vergara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Lacerda)
FlyweightMISS
Victor Altamirano won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Altamirano 36%64% Salvador
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEANMarket: 49% (-13.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -8(favors Salvador)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.3(favors Altamirano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Altamirano)