UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
Saturday, February 25, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·10 fights
Model: 6/10(60%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightMISS
Brendan Allen won by Submission (R3)
Allen 27%73% Muniz
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-5.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -229(favors Muniz)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Allen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Muniz)
HeavyweightMISS
Augusto Sakai won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sakai 50%50% Mayes
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +55(favors Sakai)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Sakai)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Mayes)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Tatiana Suarez won by Submission (R2)
Suarez 84%16% Rosa
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 85% (-0.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +404(favors Suarez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Suarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Suarez)
WelterweightHIT
Mike Malott won by Submission (R1)
Malott 65%35% Lainesse
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (-1.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +290(favors Malott)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.9(favors Malott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Lainesse)
LightweightHIT
Trevor Peek won by KO/TKO (R1)
Peek 70%30% Gonzalez
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+1.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +131(favors Peek)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Gonzalez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Gonzalez)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Jasmine Jasudavicius won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jasudavicius 46%54% Fernandes
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (-0.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -49(favors Fernandes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Jasudavicius)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Jasudavicius)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Jordan Leavitt won by KO/TKO (R1)
Leavitt 59%41% Martinez
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 52% (+6.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +142(favors Leavitt)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Leavitt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Leavitt)
Catch WeightMISS
Ode Osbourne won by Decision - Split (R3)
Osbourne 37%63% Johnson
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEANMarket: 41% (-4.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -298(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Osbourne)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Osbourne)
LightweightHIT
Joe Solecki won by Submission (R2)
Solecki 89%11% Deaton
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 86% (+2.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +313(favors Solecki)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Solecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Solecki)
LightweightHIT
Nurullo Aliev won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Aliev 60%40% Alves
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 63% (-3.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -120(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Alves)