UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
Saturday, February 11, 2023·Perth, Western Australia, Australia
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightMISS
Islam Makhachev won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Makhachev 47%53% Volkanovski
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -108(favors Volkanovski)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.5(favors Volkanovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Makhachev)
FeatherweightHIT
Yair Rodriguez won by Submission (R2)
Rodriguez 62%38% Emmett
LEANMarket: 62% (+0.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +34(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Rodriguez)
WelterweightHIT
Jack Della Maddalena won by Submission (R1)
Maddalena 73%27% Brown
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-0.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -166(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.6(favors Maddalena)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Brown)
HeavyweightMISS
Justin Tafa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tafa 48%52% Porter
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (-5.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -7(favors Porter)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Porter)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Porter)
Light Heavyweight
Crute 51%49% Menifield
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -165(favors Menifield)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Menifield)
→Takedown rate advantage: +9.4(favors Crute)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Modestas Bukauskas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bukauskas 21%79% Pedro
STRONGMarket: 33% (-11.7% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -306(favors Pedro)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Bukauskas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pedro)
FeatherweightHIT
Josh Culibao won by Submission (R2)
Culibao 60%40% Baghdasaryan
LEAN
→Elo gap: -95(favors Baghdasaryan)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Baghdasaryan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Baghdasaryan)
FlyweightHIT
Kleydson Rodrigues won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rodrigues 76%24% Ross
STRONGMarket: 75% (+0.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -91(favors Ross)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.4(favors Rodrigues)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Rodrigues)
LightweightHIT
Jamie Mullarkey won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mullarkey 68%32% Prado
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-3.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +148(favors Mullarkey)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Mullarkey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Mullarkey)
FeatherweightHIT
Jack Jenkins won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jenkins 85%15% Shainis
STRONGMarket: 79% (+5.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +17(favors Jenkins)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.0(favors Shainis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Shainis)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Loma Lookboonmee won by Submission (R2)
Lookboonmee 80%20% Reed
STRONGMarket: 75% (+4.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +128(favors Lookboonmee)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Lookboonmee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Lookboonmee)
FeatherweightMISS
Blake Bilder won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bilder 47%53% Young
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+4.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +101(favors Bilder)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Young)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Young)
LightweightMISS
Elves Brener won by Decision - Split (R3)
Brener 46%54% Tukhugov
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -241(favors Tukhugov)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Tukhugov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Tukhugov)