UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Alexander Volkanovski (14-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Makhachev.

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 386 points above Volkanovski's 1824. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Makhachev's wrestler game against Volkanovski's striker approach. Makhachev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Volkanovski brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkanovski throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkanovski over Islam Makhachev. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Volkanovski at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Yair Rodriguez (10-4) taking on Josh Emmett (10-5). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Rodriguez.

Rodriguez is rated at 1559 — 203 points above Emmett's 1356. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Emmett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yair Rodriguez over Josh Emmett. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Jack Della Maddalena (8-0) taking on Randy Brown (14-6). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Maddalena is rated at 1877 — 496 points above Brown's 1381. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maddalena rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maddalena throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Maddalena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Della Maddalena over Randy Brown. We're leaning Maddalena here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Justin Tafa (4-4) taking on Parker Porter (4-3).

Tafa carries a modest Elo edge (938 to 883), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Tafa's striker game against Porter's all-rounder approach. Tafa brings a versatile approach, while Porter is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Porter throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Porter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Porter has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Parker Porter over Justin Tafa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Porter at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 53% for Tafa, but our model sees only 48%. That 5-point gap favoring Porter is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jimmy Crute (5-4-2) taking on Alonzo Menifield (10-5-1).

Menifield carries a modest Elo edge (1207 to 1151), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Crute is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Menifield looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Menifield the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menifield throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Crute is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.4 more per 15 minutes. Menifield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimmy Crute over Alonzo Menifield. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Crute at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Modestas Bukauskas (7-4) taking on Tyson Pedro (6-4). Pedro will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bukauskas is rated at 1168 — 153 points above Pedro's 1015. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bukauskas rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bukauskas throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pedro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pedro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyson Pedro over Modestas Bukauskas. The model is firm on this one: Pedro at 79%. The market implies 33% for Bukauskas, but our model sees only 21%. That 12-point gap favoring Pedro is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Josh Culibao (3-3-1) taking on Melsik Baghdasaryan (3-1). Culibao will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Baghdasaryan at 1056 versus Culibao at 972. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baghdasaryan throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Baghdasaryan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Culibao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Culibao over Melsik Baghdasaryan. The model gives Culibao a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Kleydson Rodrigues (1-2) taking on Shannon Ross (0-2).

Rodrigues is rated at 923 — 204 points above Ross's 719. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodrigues throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodrigues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Ross has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kleydson Rodrigues over Shannon Ross. The model is firm on this one: Rodrigues at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Jamie Mullarkey (6-6) taking on Francisco Prado (1-3). Mullarkey is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Mullarkey at 947, Prado at 925. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mullarkey throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Mullarkey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Prado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamie Mullarkey over Francisco Prado. We're leaning Mullarkey here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 72% for Mullarkey, but our model sees only 68%. That 4-point gap favoring Prado is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Jack Jenkins (3-2) taking on Don Shainis (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jenkins at 1038 versus Shainis at 902. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shainis throws significantly more leather — a 6.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Shainis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jenkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Jenkins over Don Shainis. The model is firm on this one: Jenkins at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Jenkins at 79% implied while our model sees 85% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loma Lookboonmee (7-2) taking on Elise Reed (4-4). Reed is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Lookboonmee is rated at 1089 — 156 points above Reed's 933. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lookboonmee rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lookboonmee throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lookboonmee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Lookboonmee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loma Lookboonmee over Elise Reed. The model is firm on this one: Lookboonmee at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Lookboonmee at 75% implied while our model sees 80% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Blake Bilder (1-1) taking on Shane Young (2-4). Young will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Bilder at 882 versus Young at 742. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Young throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Young is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Bilder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shane Young over Blake Bilder. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Young at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Bilder at 42% implied while our model sees 47% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Elves Brener (3-2) taking on Zubaira Tukhugov (5-2-1). Brener is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Tukhugov at 1132 versus Brener at 1033. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tukhugov throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tukhugov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Brener has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zubaira Tukhugov over Elves Brener. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tukhugov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.