UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Saturday, October 11, 2025·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil·12 fights
Model: 6/12(50%)
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Main Card
LightweightMISS
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R2)
Oliveira 43%57% Gamrot
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +97(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Gamrot)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.7(favors Gamrot)
BantamweightMISS
Deiveson Figueiredo won by Decision - Split (R3)
Figueiredo 38%62% Jackson
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +29(favors Figueiredo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Jackson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Figueiredo)
WelterweightHIT
Joel Alvarez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Alvarez 68%32% Luque
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +168(favors Alvarez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Alvarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Luque)
HeavyweightMISS
Mario Pinto won by KO/TKO (R2)
Pinto 47%53% Diniz
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+0.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -102(favors Diniz)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Diniz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Diniz)
FeatherweightMISS
Kaan Ofli won by Submission (R1)
Ofli 29%71% Ramos
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-4.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -256(favors Ramos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Ramos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Ramos)
FeatherweightHIT
Michael Aswell Jr. won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jr. 58%42% Almeida
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -143(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Almeida)
Prelims
FlyweightMISS
Jafel Filho won by Submission (R1)
Filho 45%55% Carpenter
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-7.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -42(favors Carpenter)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Carpenter)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Filho)
HeavyweightHIT
Vitor Petrino won by KO/TKO (R3)
Petrino 63%37% Petersen
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEANMarket: 72% (-9.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +35(favors Petrino)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Petersen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Petersen)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Bia Mesquita won by Submission (R2)
Mesquita 55%45% Alekseeva
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +176(favors Mesquita)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Alekseeva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Alekseeva)
FlyweightMISS
Lucas Rocha won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rocha 49%51% Nicoll
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+1.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +26(favors Rocha)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Nicoll)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.7(favors Nicoll)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Julia Polastri won by KO/TKO (R3)
Polastri 87%13% Kowalkiewicz
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 81% (+5.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -73(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Polastri)
BantamweightHIT
Luan Lacerda won by Submission (R2)
Lacerda 74%26% Oliveira
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-1.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +31(favors Lacerda)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Lacerda)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Lacerda)