UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Saturday, October 11, 2025·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Model Record: 6/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✓
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R2)
Oliveira 55%45% Gamrot
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +136(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Gamrot)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.7(favors Gamrot)
Bantamweight✗
Deiveson Figueiredo won by Decision - Split (R3)
Figueiredo 46%54% Jackson
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -47(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Jackson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Figueiredo)
Welterweight✓
Joel Alvarez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Alvarez 57%43% Luque
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +249(favors Alvarez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Alvarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Luque)
Heavyweight✗
Mario Pinto won by KO/TKO (R2)
Pinto 48%52% Diniz
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -78(favors Diniz)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Diniz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Diniz)
Featherweight✗
Kaan Ofli won by Submission (R1)
Ofli 39%61% Ramos
LEAN
→Elo gap: -140(favors Ramos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Ramos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Ramos)
Featherweight✓
Michael Aswell Jr. won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jr. 58%42% Almeida
LEAN
→Elo gap: -46(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Almeida)
Flyweight✗
Jafel Filho won by Submission (R1)
Filho 40%60% Carpenter
LEAN
→Elo gap: -52(favors Carpenter)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Carpenter)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Filho)
Heavyweight✓
Vitor Petrino won by KO/TKO (R3)
Petrino 52%48% Petersen
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +43(favors Petrino)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Petersen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Petersen)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Bia Mesquita won by Submission (R2)
Mesquita 56%44% Alekseeva
LEAN
→Elo gap: +89(favors Mesquita)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Alekseeva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Alekseeva)
Flyweight✗
Lucas Rocha won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rocha 38%62% Nicoll
LEAN
→Elo gap: +7(favors Rocha)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Nicoll)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.7(favors Nicoll)
Women's Strawweight✓
Julia Polastri won by KO/TKO (R3)
Polastri 62%38% Kowalkiewicz
LEAN
→Elo gap: -72(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Polastri)
Bantamweight✗
Luan Lacerda won by Submission (R2)
Lacerda 45%55% Oliveira
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +55(favors Lacerda)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Lacerda)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Lacerda)