UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
Saturday, February 4, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 6/10(60%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Serghei Spivac won by Submission (R1)
Spivac 85%15% Lewis
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONGMarket: 72% (+13.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -119(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Spivac)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.8(favors Spivac)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Devin Clark won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Clark 39%61% Jung
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEAN
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -185(favors Jung)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Jung)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Jung)
HeavyweightHIT
Marcin Tybura won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tybura 58%42% Ivanov
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 57% (+1.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +143(favors Tybura)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Tybura)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Ivanov)
Featherweight
Choi 51%49% Nelson
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +126(favors Choi)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Choi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Nelson)
WelterweightMISS
Adam Fugitt won by KO/TKO (R1)
Fugitt 26%74% Kinoshita
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 25% (+0.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -72(favors Kinoshita)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.7(favors Fugitt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Fugitt)
LightweightHIT
Anshul Jubli won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jubli 51%49% Saragih
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+8.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Saragih)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Saragih)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Saragih)
Prelims
FeatherweightMISS
JeongYeong Lee won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lee 45%55% Yizha
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Yizha)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Yizha)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Yizha)
BantamweightHIT
Rinya Nakamura won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nakamura 87%13% Kazama
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 82% (+4.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Kazama)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Kazama)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kazama)
FlyweightMISS
HyunSung Park won by Submission (R3)
Park 44%56% Choi
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Choi)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Choi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Choi)
MiddleweightHIT
JunYong Park won by Submission (R1)
Park 68%32% Tiuliulin
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +84(favors Park)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Tiuliulin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Park)
FlyweightHIT
Tatsuro Taira won by Submission (R1)
Taira 78%22% Aguilar
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONG
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +217(favors Taira)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Taira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Taira)