UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jamahal Hill (6-3) taking on Glover Teixeira (16-6). Hill is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 200 points above Hill's 1396. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hill's striker game against Teixeira's wrestler approach. Hill brings a versatile approach, while Teixeira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamahal Hill over Glover Teixeira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hill at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-5-2) taking on Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1). Moreno is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Figueiredo at 1490 versus Moreno at 1410. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Moreno's all-rounder game against Figueiredo's knockout artist approach. Moreno is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Figueiredo is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreno throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Figueiredo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Deiveson Figueiredo. The model gives Moreno a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Moreno at 55% implied while our model sees 65% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-8) taking on Neil Magny (24-12). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Burns at 1379 versus Magny at 1270. That 109-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Burns is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Magny looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Magny the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Burns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Neil Magny. The model is firm on this one: Burns at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Burns at 81% implied while our model sees 89% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Lauren Murphy (8-6). Murphy is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Murphy carries a modest Elo edge (1171 to 1115), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Murphy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Lauren Murphy. The model is firm on this one: Andrade at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Andrade at 83% implied while our model sees 86% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Johnny Walker (7-6) taking on Paul Craig (9-9-1). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Walker is rated at 1432 — 387 points above Craig's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Walker's knockout artist game against Craig's wrestler approach. Walker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Craig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Craig throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Craig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Walker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Walker over Paul Craig. The model gives Walker a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ihor Potieria (2-5) taking on Mauricio Rua (11-11-1).

Rua carries a modest Elo edge (876 to 821), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Potieria throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Rua has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ihor Potieria over Mauricio Rua. We're leaning Potieria here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Brunno Ferreira (5-2) taking on Gregory Rodrigues (8-3). Rodrigues is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rodrigues is rated at 1515 — 171 points above Ferreira's 1344. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ferreira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Rodrigues is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ferreira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodrigues throws significantly more leather — a 6.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodrigues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gregory Rodrigues over Brunno Ferreira. The model is firm on this one: Rodrigues at 79%. The market implies 26% for Ferreira, but our model sees only 21%. That 5-point gap favoring Rodrigues is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Moises (8-6) taking on Melquizael Costa (6-2).

Costa is rated at 1550 — 426 points above Moises's 1124. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Costa has won 5 straight.

The style clash matters here: Moises is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Costa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Costa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moises throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Moises is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Moises over Melquizael Costa. The model is firm on this one: Moises at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Moises at 78% implied while our model sees 86% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Gabriel Bonfim (5-1) taking on Mounir Lazzez (2-1). Lazzez will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bonfim is rated at 1618 — 647 points above Lazzez's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonfim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lazzez throws significantly more leather — a 7.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lazzez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Bonfim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mounir Lazzez over Gabriel Bonfim. The model gives Lazzez a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Bonfim, but our model sees only 42%. That 20-point gap favoring Lazzez is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jailton Almeida (8-2) taking on Shamil Abdurakhimov (5-5). Almeida will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Almeida is rated at 1428 — 409 points above Abdurakhimov's 1018. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Almeida's wrestler game against Abdurakhimov's striker approach. Almeida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Abdurakhimov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.8 more per 15 minutes. Abdurakhimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jailton Almeida over Shamil Abdurakhimov. The model is firm on this one: Almeida at 76%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Stamann (7-6-1) taking on Luan Lacerda (0-2). Lacerda will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Stamann carries a modest Elo edge (932 to 901), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stamann throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Stamann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Lacerda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Stamann over Luan Lacerda. The model is firm on this one: Stamann at 75%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Ismael Bonfim (2-2) taking on Terrance McKinney (7-4). McKinney is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: McKinney at 1110 versus Bonfim at 989. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. McKinney throws significantly more leather — a 7.8 sig. strike per minute gap. McKinney is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.7 more per 15 minutes. Bonfim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Terrance McKinney over Ismael Bonfim. We're leaning McKinney here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 49% for Bonfim, but our model sees only 29%. That 19-point gap favoring McKinney is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Nicolas Dalby (7-5-1) taking on Warlley Alves (8-7).

Dalby is rated at 1283 — 388 points above Alves's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dalby's all-rounder game against Alves's knockout artist approach. Dalby is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Alves is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Warlley Alves over Nicolas Dalby. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alves at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Josiane Nunes (3-2) taking on Zarah Fairn (0-3). Fairn is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Nunes at 866 versus Fairn at 773. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 5.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fairn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josiane Nunes over Zarah Fairn. The model is firm on this one: Nunes at 82%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Daniel Marcos (4-1) taking on Saimon Oliveira (0-3). Oliveira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Marcos is rated at 1352 — 692 points above Oliveira's 660. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Marcos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Saimon Oliveira over Daniel Marcos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oliveira at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Marcos at 44% implied while our model sees 48% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.