UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
Saturday, January 21, 2023·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil·15 fights
Model: 11/15(73%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jamahal Hill won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Hill 53%47% Teixeira
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-2.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -90(favors Teixeira)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Teixeira)
FlyweightHIT
Brandon Moreno won by KO/TKO (R3)
Moreno 66%34% Figueiredo
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 55% (+10.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -26(favors Figueiredo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Moreno)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Moreno)
WelterweightHIT
Gilbert Burns won by Submission (R1)
Burns 86%14% Magny
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 81% (+5.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +45(favors Burns)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Magny)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Jessica Andrade won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Andrade 85%15% Murphy
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+2.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +200(favors Andrade)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Murphy)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Johnny Walker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Walker 55%45% Craig
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-7.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -55(favors Craig)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Craig)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Craig)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ihor Potieria won by KO/TKO (R1)
Potieria 64%36% Rua
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
LEANMarket: 66% (-1.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -311(favors Rua)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Potieria)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Rua)
MiddleweightMISS
Brunno Ferreira won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ferreira 16%84% Rodrigues
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONGMarket: 26% (-10.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -491(favors Rodrigues)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.2(favors Rodrigues)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Rodrigues)
LightweightHIT
Thiago Moises won by Submission (R2)
Moises 83%17% Costa
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+4.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +339(favors Moises)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Moises)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Moises)
WelterweightMISS
Gabriel Bonfim won by Submission (R1)
Bonfim 45%55% Lazzez
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-16.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -183(favors Lazzez)
→Striking volume advantage: -7.4(favors Lazzez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Lazzez)
Early Prelims
HeavyweightHIT
Jailton Almeida won by KO/TKO (R2)
Almeida 71%29% Abdurakhimov
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +186(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.8(favors Almeida)
BantamweightHIT
Cody Stamann won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stamann 72%28% Lacerda
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-3.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +278(favors Stamann)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Stamann)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Stamann)
LightweightMISS
Ismael Bonfim won by KO/TKO (R2)
Bonfim 23%77% McKinney
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
STRONGMarket: 49% (-25.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -257(favors McKinney)
→Striking volume advantage: -7.8(favors McKinney)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.7(favors McKinney)
WelterweightMISS
Nicolas Dalby won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dalby 38%62% Alves
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 51% (-12.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +28(favors Dalby)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Alves)
Women's FeatherweightHIT
Josiane Nunes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nunes 80%20% Fairn
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +545(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.6(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Fairn)
BantamweightHIT
Daniel Marcos won by KO/TKO (R2)
Marcos 52%48% Oliveira
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+8.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +112(favors Marcos)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Oliveira)