UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Nassourdine Imavov (8-2).

Imavov carries a modest Elo edge (1876 to 1813), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Imavov has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Strickland's all-rounder game against Imavov's knockout artist approach. Strickland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Imavov is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Imavov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Imavov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nassourdine Imavov over Sean Strickland. The model gives Imavov a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 45% for Strickland, but our model sees only 36%. That 8-point gap favoring Imavov is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Dan Ige (11-9) taking on Damon Jackson (6-5-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Jackson.

Ige is rated at 1235 — 196 points above Jackson's 1039. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ige is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jackson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jackson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ige throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damon Jackson over Dan Ige. The model gives Jackson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 55% for Ige, but our model sees only 44%. That 11-point gap favoring Jackson is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Roman Kopylov (6-4) taking on Punahele Soriano (6-4). Kopylov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kopylov at 1277, Soriano at 1288. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Soriano has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soriano throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kopylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kopylov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roman Kopylov over Punahele Soriano. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kopylov at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Kopylov at 43% implied while our model sees 53% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-5) taking on Ketlen Vieira (9-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pennington at 1411 versus Vieira at 1294. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Vieira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ketlen Vieira over Raquel Pennington. The model gives Vieira a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Umar Nurmagomedov (7-1) taking on Raoni Barcelos (9-4).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 1701 — 291 points above Barcelos's 1410. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barcelos has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barcelos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nurmagomedov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barcelos throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov over Raoni Barcelos. The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 93%. Notably, the betting market has Nurmagomedov at 88% implied while our model sees 93% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Javid Basharat (3-2) taking on Mateus Mendonca (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Basharat.

Basharat is rated at 1101 — 280 points above Mendonca's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Basharat throws significantly more leather — a 5.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Basharat is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Mendonca has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Javid Basharat over Mateus Mendonca. The model is firm on this one: Basharat at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Basharat at 76% implied while our model sees 84% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-6) taking on Claudio Ribeiro (1-2). Ribeiro is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Alhassan at 973 versus Ribeiro at 875. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alhassan throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Alhassan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Ribeiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Claudio Ribeiro over Abdul Razak Alhassan. The model gives Ribeiro a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 51% for Alhassan, but our model sees only 42%. That 9-point gap favoring Ribeiro is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Mateusz Rebecki (4-2) taking on Nick Fiore (0-1). Fiore is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Rebecki is rated at 1098 — 265 points above Fiore's 833. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiore throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fiore is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fiore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nick Fiore over Mateusz Rebecki. We're leaning Fiore here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Allan Nascimento (3-1) taking on Carlos Hernandez (3-3).

Nascimento is rated at 1266 — 353 points above Hernandez's 913. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nascimento rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Nascimento has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Allan Nascimento over Carlos Hernandez. We're leaning Nascimento here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 74% for Nascimento, but our model sees only 71%. That 3-point gap favoring Hernandez is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Dan Argueta (1-2) taking on Nick Aguirre (0-1). Aguirre is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Argueta carries a modest Elo edge (859 to 824), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Argueta throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Argueta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Aguirre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nick Aguirre over Dan Argueta. The model gives Aguirre a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Charles Johnson (7-5) taking on Jimmy Flick (2-3). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1097 — 280 points above Flick's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Flick's submission artist approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Flick is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Flick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Johnson over Jimmy Flick. The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.