UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
Saturday, December 17, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightHIT
Jared Cannonier won by Decision - Split (R5)
Cannonier 50%50% Strickland
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-1.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +311(favors Cannonier)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Strickland)
LightweightHIT
Arman Tsarukyan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tsarukyan 66%34% Ismagulov
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+1.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +134(favors Tsarukyan)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Tsarukyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Tsarukyan)
FlyweightHIT
Amir Albazi won by KO/TKO (R3)
Albazi 82%18% Costa
STRONGMarket: 80% (+1.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +225(favors Albazi)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Albazi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Albazi)
FeatherweightHIT
Alex Caceres won by KO/TKO (R1)
Caceres 57%43% Erosa
LEANMarket: 38% (+18.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -38(favors Erosa)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Erosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Erosa)
LightweightMISS
Drew Dober won by KO/TKO (R2)
Dober 49%51% Green
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-11.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +91(favors Dober)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.5(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Green)
MiddleweightHIT
Michal Oleksiejczuk won by KO/TKO (R1)
Oleksiejczuk 64%36% Brundage
LEANMarket: 70% (-5.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +24(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Brundage)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Cory McKenna won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
McKenna 50%50% Vlismas
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -14(favors Vlismas)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Vlismas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors McKenna)
WelterweightMISS
Matthew Semelsberger won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Semelsberger 35%65% Matthews
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -171(favors Matthews)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Semelsberger)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Matthews)
BantamweightMISS
Said Nurmagomedov won by Submission (R2)
Nurmagomedov 46%54% Kakhramonov
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (-3.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +140(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.6(favors Kakhramonov)
LightweightMISS
Rafa Garcia won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Garcia 44%56% Maheshate
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -149(favors Maheshate)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Maheshate)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Garcia)
WelterweightHIT
Rinat Fakhretdinov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fakhretdinov 57%43% Battle
LEANMarket: 58% (-1.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -205(favors Battle)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Battle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Fakhretdinov)
FlyweightMISS
Manel Kape won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kape 48%52% Dvorak
TOSS-UPMarket: 67% (-18.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +30(favors Kape)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Kape)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Kape)
BantamweightHIT
Sergey Morozov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morozov 75%25% Newson
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (+1.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +116(favors Morozov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Morozov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Morozov)