UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Saturday, December 10, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight
Blachowicz 23%77% Ankalaev
STRONGMarket: 26% (-2.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +97(favors Blachowicz)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Blachowicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Ankalaev)
LightweightHIT
Paddy Pimblett won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pimblett 62%38% Gordon
LEANMarket: 69% (-7.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +34(favors Pimblett)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Pimblett)
Catch WeightMISS
Santiago Ponzinibbio won by KO/TKO (R3)
Ponzinibbio 43%57% Morono
LEANMarket: 60% (-16.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -77(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Ponzinibbio)
MiddleweightHIT
Dricus Du Plessis won by Submission (R3)
Plessis 69%31% Till
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+4.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -21(favors Till)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Plessis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Plessis)
FeatherweightHIT
Ilia Topuria won by Submission (R2)
Topuria 52%48% Mitchell
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-4.6% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -18(favors Mitchell)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Topuria)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Mitchell)
BantamweightHIT
Raul Rosas Jr. won by Submission (R1)
Jr. 62%38% Perrin
LEAN
→Elo gap: +155(favors Jr.)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Perrin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Perrin)
HeavyweightHIT
Jairzinho Rozenstruik won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rozenstruik 55%45% Daukaus
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-6.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -20(favors Daukaus)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Daukaus)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Daukaus)
MiddleweightHIT
Edmen Shahbazyan won by KO/TKO (R2)
Shahbazyan 75%25% Lungiambula
STRONGMarket: 74% (+1.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +320(favors Shahbazyan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Lungiambula)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Lungiambula)
MiddleweightMISS
Chris Curtis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Curtis 45%55% Buckley
LEANMarket: 38% (+6.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +146(favors Curtis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Curtis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Buckley)
FeatherweightMISS
Billy Quarantillo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Quarantillo 38%62% Hernandez
LEANMarket: 62% (-23.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +42(favors Quarantillo)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Quarantillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Quarantillo)
FeatherweightMISS
TJ Brown won by Submission (R3)
Brown 48%52% Silva
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -112(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Brown)
BantamweightHIT
Cameron Saaiman won by KO/TKO (R3)
Saaiman 77%23% Koslow
STRONGMarket: 73% (+3.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Koslow)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Koslow)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Koslow)