UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6) taking on Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1). Nzechukwu is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Cutelaba carries a modest Elo edge (1147 to 1071), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Nzechukwu's all-rounder game against Cutelaba's striker approach. Nzechukwu is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cutelaba brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nzechukwu throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.1 more per 15 minutes. Nzechukwu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu over Ion Cutelaba. We're leaning Nzechukwu here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Nzechukwu at 63% implied while our model sees 68% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Waldo Cortes Acosta (9-2) taking on Chase Sherman (4-10).

Acosta is rated at 1637 — 814 points above Sherman's 822. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sherman throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sherman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Acosta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Waldo Cortes Acosta over Chase Sherman. The model is firm on this one: Acosta at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Acosta at 68% implied while our model sees 79% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Muslim Salikhov (9-4) taking on Andre Fialho (2-4). Fialho will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Salikhov is rated at 1183 — 318 points above Fialho's 865. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Salikhov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fialho throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Salikhov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Salikhov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Muslim Salikhov over Andre Fialho. The model gives Salikhov a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Salikhov at 51% implied while our model sees 59% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Jack Della Maddalena (8-0) taking on Danny Roberts (7-6).

Maddalena is rated at 1877 — 971 points above Roberts's 906. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maddalena rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maddalena throws significantly more leather — a 8.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Maddalena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Della Maddalena over Danny Roberts. The model is firm on this one: Maddalena at 82%. The market implies 89% for Maddalena, but our model sees only 82%. That 7-point gap favoring Roberts is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Charles Johnson (7-5) taking on Zhalgas Zhumagulov (1-5). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1097 — 334 points above Zhumagulov's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Zhumagulov's wrestler approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Zhumagulov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zhumagulov throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Zhumagulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Johnson over Zhalgas Zhumagulov. We're leaning Johnson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 61% implied while our model sees 66% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jennifer Maia (6-5) taking on Maryna Moroz (6-5). Moroz is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Maia is rated at 1193 — 241 points above Moroz's 952. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moroz throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Moroz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maryna Moroz over Jennifer Maia. The model gives Moroz a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Miles Johns (6-4) taking on Vince Morales (3-7).

Johns is rated at 1044 — 192 points above Morales's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Morales is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Johns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miles Johns over Vince Morales. The model gives Johns a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricky Turcios (2-2) taking on Kevin Natividad (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Turcios.

Turcios carries a modest Elo edge (829 to 758), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turcios throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Turcios is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Natividad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricky Turcios over Kevin Natividad. The model gives Turcios a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Vanessa Demopoulos (5-4) taking on Maria Oliveira (1-2). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Demopoulos at 883 versus Oliveira at 792. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maria Oliveira over Vanessa Demopoulos. The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 50% for Demopoulos, but our model sees only 43%. That 7-point gap favoring Oliveira is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brady Hiestand (2-1) taking on Fernie Garcia (0-3). Hiestand will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hiestand is rated at 1238 — 513 points above Garcia's 725. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hiestand throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hiestand is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brady Hiestand over Fernie Garcia. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hiestand at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Natalia Silva (7-0) taking on Tereza Bleda (1-1). Bleda is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Silva is rated at 1618 — 717 points above Bleda's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Silva rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 6.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Bleda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Natalia Silva over Tereza Bleda. The model is firm on this one: Silva at 77%.