UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Lemos (9-4) taking on Marina Rodriguez (7-5-2).

Lemos is rated at 1335 — 276 points above Rodriguez's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lemos's knockout artist game against Rodriguez's all-rounder approach. Lemos is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marina Rodriguez over Amanda Lemos. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Daniel Rodriguez (9-4). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Rodriguez is rated at 1494 — 223 points above Magny's 1270. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Rodriguez over Neil Magny. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rodriguez at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 51% for Magny, but our model sees only 48%. That 3-point gap favoring Rodriguez is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (3-2) taking on Darrick Minner (2-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Nuerdanbieke at 890, Minner at 864. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Nuerdanbieke's striker game against Minner's submission artist approach. Nuerdanbieke brings a versatile approach, while Minner is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Minner throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nuerdanbieke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Nuerdanbieke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shayilan Nuerdanbieke over Darrick Minner. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nuerdanbieke at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Tagir Ulanbekov (6-1) taking on Nate Maness (4-2). Maness is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ulanbekov at 1261 versus Maness at 1176. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Ulanbekov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ulanbekov's wrestler game against Maness's knockout artist approach. Ulanbekov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Maness is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulanbekov throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ulanbekov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Ulanbekov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tagir Ulanbekov over Nate Maness. The model gives Ulanbekov a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Grant Dawson (11-1-1) taking on Mark Madsen (4-1).

Dawson is rated at 1336 — 224 points above Madsen's 1112. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dawson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dawson's wrestler game against Madsen's striker approach. Dawson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Madsen brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Madsen throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Madsen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Madsen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Grant Dawson over Mark Madsen. We're leaning Dawson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Miranda Maverick (8-3) taking on Shanna Young (1-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Young.

Maverick is rated at 1264 — 374 points above Young's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maverick rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Young throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Maverick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Maverick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miranda Maverick over Shanna Young. The model is firm on this one: Maverick at 83%. The market implies 88% for Maverick, but our model sees only 83%. That 5-point gap favoring Young is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mario Bautista (10-3) taking on Benito Lopez (2-1). Lopez will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bautista is rated at 1566 — 560 points above Lopez's 1006. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bautista throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bautista is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Lopez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mario Bautista over Benito Lopez. The model is firm on this one: Bautista at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Bautista at 78% implied while our model sees 86% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Polyana Viana (4-6) taking on Jinh Yu Frey (2-5). Viana is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Viana at 868 versus Frey at 730. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Viana looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Frey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Viana the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Viana throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Frey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Viana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Polyana Viana over Jinh Yu Frey. The model gives Viana a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Viana at 56% implied while our model sees 63% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Johnny Munoz (2-3) taking on Liudvik Sholinian (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Munoz at 880, Sholinian at 866. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Munoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Munoz over Liudvik Sholinian. The model is firm on this one: Munoz at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Munoz at 68% implied while our model sees 76% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Jake Hadley (3-3) taking on Carlos Candelario (0-1).

Hadley is rated at 967 — 167 points above Candelario's 800. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Candelario throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Candelario is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Hadley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Hadley over Carlos Candelario. We're leaning Hadley here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Tamires Vidal (1-2) taking on Ramona Pascual (0-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Vidal at 784, Pascual at 784. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pascual throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pascual is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Vidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tamires Vidal over Ramona Pascual. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vidal at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.