UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Lemos (9-6) taking on Marina Rodriguez (7-6-2).

Lemos is rated at 1366 — 219 points above Rodriguez's 1148. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lemos's knockout artist game against Rodriguez's all-rounder approach. Lemos is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marina Rodriguez over Amanda Lemos. We're leaning Rodriguez here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-13) taking on Daniel Rodriguez (10-4). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rodriguez at 1511 versus Magny at 1418. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Neil Magny over Daniel Rodriguez. The model gives Magny a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Magny at 51% implied while our model sees 59% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (3-3) taking on Darrick Minner (2-4).

Nuerdanbieke carries a modest Elo edge (959 to 918), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Nuerdanbieke's striker game against Minner's submission artist approach. Nuerdanbieke brings a versatile approach, while Minner is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Minner throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nuerdanbieke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Nuerdanbieke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shayilan Nuerdanbieke over Darrick Minner. We're leaning Nuerdanbieke here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 75% for Nuerdanbieke, but our model sees only 72%. That 3-point gap favoring Minner is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Tagir Ulanbekov (6-2) taking on Nate Maness (5-2). Maness is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ulanbekov at 1316 versus Maness at 1214. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Ulanbekov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ulanbekov's wrestler game against Maness's knockout artist approach. Ulanbekov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Maness is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulanbekov throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ulanbekov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Ulanbekov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tagir Ulanbekov over Nate Maness. We're leaning Ulanbekov here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ulanbekov at 68% implied while our model sees 72% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Grant Dawson (11-2-1) taking on Mark Madsen (4-2).

Dawson is rated at 1453 — 222 points above Madsen's 1230. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dawson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dawson's wrestler game against Madsen's striker approach. Dawson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Madsen brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Madsen throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Madsen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Madsen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Grant Dawson over Mark Madsen. The model gives Dawson a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Miranda Maverick (8-4) taking on Shanna Young (1-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Young.

Maverick is rated at 1318 — 449 points above Young's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maverick rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Young throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Maverick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Maverick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miranda Maverick over Shanna Young. The model is firm on this one: Maverick at 90%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mario Bautista (11-3) taking on Benito Lopez (2-2). Lopez will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bautista is rated at 1645 — 636 points above Lopez's 1008. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bautista throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bautista is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Lopez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mario Bautista over Benito Lopez. The model is firm on this one: Bautista at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Bautista at 78% implied while our model sees 85% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Polyana Viana (4-7) taking on Jinh Yu Frey (2-6). Viana is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Viana at 867 versus Frey at 726. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Viana looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Frey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Viana the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Viana throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Frey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Viana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jinh Yu Frey over Polyana Viana. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Frey at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Viana, but our model sees only 49%. That 7-point gap favoring Frey is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Johnny Munoz (2-4) taking on Liudvik Sholinian (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Munoz at 926 versus Sholinian at 810. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Munoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Munoz over Liudvik Sholinian. The model is firm on this one: Munoz at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Munoz at 68% implied while our model sees 82% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Jake Hadley (3-4) taking on Carlos Candelario (0-2).

Hadley is rated at 988 — 295 points above Candelario's 693. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Candelario throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Candelario is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Hadley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Hadley over Carlos Candelario. We're leaning Hadley here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Hadley at 71% implied while our model sees 74% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Tamires Vidal (1-3) taking on Ramona Pascual (0-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Vidal at 694, Pascual at 709. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pascual throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pascual is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Vidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tamires Vidal over Ramona Pascual. The model gives Vidal a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Vidal at 52% implied while our model sees 62% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.