UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Ciryl Gane (10-2) taking on Tai Tuivasa (8-8). Gane is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Gane is rated at 1884 — 777 points above Tuivasa's 1107. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gane's all-rounder game against Tuivasa's striker approach. Gane is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Tuivasa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuivasa throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Gane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane over Tai Tuivasa. The model is firm on this one: Gane at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Marvin Vettori (9-7-1).

Whittaker is rated at 1528 — 249 points above Vettori's 1280. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Whittaker's striker game against Vettori's all-rounder approach. Whittaker brings a versatile approach, while Vettori is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vettori throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Vettori is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Marvin Vettori. The model gives Whittaker a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for Whittaker, but our model sees only 62%. That 3-point gap favoring Vettori is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Nassourdine Imavov (8-2) taking on Joaquin Buckley (11-4). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Imavov.

There's a real Elo separation here: Imavov at 1876 versus Buckley at 1728. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Both fighters bring momentum: Imavov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one, while Buckley has won 6 straight.

Stylistically this is Imavov's all-rounder game against Buckley's striker approach. Imavov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Buckley brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Imavov throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Buckley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Buckley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nassourdine Imavov over Joaquin Buckley. We're leaning Imavov here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Imavov at 69% implied while our model sees 72% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Roman Kopylov (6-4) taking on Alessio Di Chirico (4-6).

Kopylov is rated at 1277 — 489 points above Chirico's 788. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chirico throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Chirico is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Chirico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alessio Di Chirico over Roman Kopylov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Chirico at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 51% for Kopylov, but our model sees only 46%. That 4-point gap favoring Chirico is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features William Gomis (4-1) taking on Jarno Errens (1-2).

Gomis is rated at 1279 — 407 points above Errens's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Errens throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Errens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Errens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: William Gomis over Jarno Errens. We're leaning Gomis here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Gomis at 67% implied while our model sees 70% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Nathaniel Wood (9-3) taking on Charles Jourdain (7-7-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Jourdain.

Wood carries a modest Elo edge (1389 to 1354), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jourdain throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Jourdain has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Jourdain over Nathaniel Wood. The model gives Jourdain a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 43% for Wood, but our model sees only 37%. That 6-point gap favoring Jourdain is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Abus Magomedov (4-2) taking on Dustin Stoltzfus (3-6). Magomedov is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Magomedov is rated at 1280 — 268 points above Stoltzfus's 1012. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Magomedov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Magomedov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stoltzfus is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Stoltzfus the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stoltzfus throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Stoltzfus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Magomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Stoltzfus over Abus Magomedov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stoltzfus at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Nasrat Haqparast (10-4) taking on John Makdessi (11-8). Haqparast is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Haqparast is rated at 1235 — 245 points above Makdessi's 989. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Haqparast rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Makdessi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nasrat Haqparast over John Makdessi. The model is firm on this one: Haqparast at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Haqparast at 69% implied while our model sees 79% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Fares Ziam (7-2) taking on Michal Figlak (0-1). Ziam is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Ziam is rated at 1556 — 733 points above Figlak's 823. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ziam rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ziam throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ziam is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Figlak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fares Ziam over Michal Figlak. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ziam at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Ziam at 35% implied while our model sees 51% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Benoit Saint Denis (8-3) taking on Gabriel Miranda (1-2).

Denis is rated at 1743 — 941 points above Miranda's 802. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Denis rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Denis throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Denis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Miranda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Benoit Saint Denis over Gabriel Miranda. The model gives Denis a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cristian Quinonez (1-1) taking on Khalid Taha (1-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Quinonez.

There's a real Elo separation here: Quinonez at 915 versus Taha at 823. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taha throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Taha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Quinonez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cristian Quinonez over Khalid Taha. The model gives Quinonez a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Stephanie Egger (3-3) taking on Ailin Perez (4-1).

Perez is rated at 1291 — 355 points above Egger's 936. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Perez has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Egger throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Egger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephanie Egger over Ailin Perez. The model gives Egger a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 70% for Egger, but our model sees only 61%. That 9-point gap favoring Perez is worth watching.