UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
Saturday, August 13, 2022·San Diego, California, USA
Model Record: 5/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightHIT
Marlon Vera won by KO/TKO (R4)
Vera 64%36% Cruz
LEANMarket: 65% (-1.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +71(favors Vera)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Cruz)
FeatherweightMISS
Nate Landwehr won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Landwehr 21%79% Onama
STRONGMarket: 25% (-3.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -138(favors Onama)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Landwehr)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Onama)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Yazmin Jauregui won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jauregui 56%44% Lucindo
LEANMarket: 66% (-9.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Lucindo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Lucindo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lucindo)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Azamat Murzakanov won by KO/TKO (R3)
Murzakanov 44%56% Clark
LEANMarket: 58% (-13.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -42(favors Clark)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Clark)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Clark)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Priscila Cachoeira won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cachoeira 43%57% Silva
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +44(favors Cachoeira)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Cachoeira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Cachoeira)
MiddleweightMISS
Gerald Meerschaert won by Submission (R3)
Meerschaert 30%70% Silva
CONFIDENTMarket: 26% (+4.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +44(favors Meerschaert)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Meerschaert)
Catch WeightMISS
Angela Hill won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hill 29%71% Godinez
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -197(favors Godinez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.5(favors Godinez)
HeavyweightHIT
Martin Buday won by Decision - Split (R3)
Buday 81%19% Brzeski
STRONGMarket: 74% (+6.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +89(favors Buday)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Buday)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Brzeski)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Nina Nunes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Nunes 33%67% Calvillo
CONFIDENTMarket: 37% (-3.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +88(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Calvillo)
LightweightHIT
Gabriel Benitez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Benitez 69%31% Ontiveros
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-6.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +15(favors Benitez)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.2(favors Benitez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ontiveros)
FlyweightMISS
Tyson Nam won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nam 30%70% Osbourne
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +15(favors Nam)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Osbourne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Osbourne)
Catch WeightHIT
Josh Quinlan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Quinlan 66%34% Witt
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +77(favors Quinlan)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Witt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.9(favors Witt)
Bantamweight
Zalal 48%52% Blackshear
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -129(favors Blackshear)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Zalal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Zalal)