UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Marlon Vera (15-9) taking on Dominick Cruz (7-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Vera at 1460, Cruz at 1446. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Vera's all-rounder game against Cruz's striker approach. Vera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cruz brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Cruz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marlon Vera over Dominick Cruz. The model gives Vera a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Nate Landwehr (5-4) taking on David Onama (6-2). Onama is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Onama is rated at 1311 — 331 points above Landwehr's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Onama has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Landwehr throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Onama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Onama has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Onama over Nate Landwehr. The model is firm on this one: Onama at 79%. The market implies 25% for Landwehr, but our model sees only 21%. That 4-point gap favoring Onama is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Yazmin Jauregui (3-1) taking on Iasmin Lucindo (4-2).

Lucindo is rated at 1309 — 361 points above Jauregui's 948. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lucindo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lucindo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lucindo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yazmin Jauregui over Iasmin Lucindo. The model gives Jauregui a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for Jauregui, but our model sees only 56%. That 10-point gap favoring Lucindo is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Azamat Murzakanov (5-0) taking on Devin Clark (8-8). Clark is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Murzakanov is rated at 1573 — 629 points above Clark's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murzakanov rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Murzakanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Devin Clark over Azamat Murzakanov. The model gives Clark a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 58% for Murzakanov, but our model sees only 44%. That 14-point gap favoring Clark is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Priscila Cachoeira (5-7) taking on Ariane da Silva (6-7).

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (976 to 903), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Cachoeira's striker game against Silva's all-rounder approach. Cachoeira brings a versatile approach, while Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cachoeira throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cachoeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ariane da Silva over Priscila Cachoeira. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Meerschaert (12-12) taking on Bruno Silva (4-6). Meerschaert will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Meerschaert carries a modest Elo edge (867 to 798), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Meerschaert's wrestler game against Silva's striker approach. Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Meerschaert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bruno Silva over Gerald Meerschaert. We're leaning Silva here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Meerschaert at 26% implied while our model sees 30% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Angela Hill (13-15) taking on Loopy Godinez (8-5). Hill will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Godinez is rated at 1260 — 187 points above Hill's 1074. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hill's striker game against Godinez's wrestler approach. Hill brings a versatile approach, while Godinez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Godinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loopy Godinez over Angela Hill. We're leaning Godinez here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Martin Buday (6-1) taking on Lukasz Brzeski (1-5).

Buday is rated at 1183 — 376 points above Brzeski's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Buday's all-rounder game against Brzeski's striker approach. Buday is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brzeski brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buday throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Brzeski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Brzeski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Martin Buday over Lukasz Brzeski. The model is firm on this one: Buday at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Buday at 74% implied while our model sees 81% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Nina Nunes (4-4) taking on Cynthia Calvillo (6-5-1).

Nunes is rated at 1155 — 244 points above Calvillo's 911. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Calvillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Calvillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cynthia Calvillo over Nina Nunes. We're leaning Calvillo here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 37% for Nunes, but our model sees only 33%. That 4-point gap favoring Calvillo is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Gabriel Benitez (7-7) taking on Charlie Ontiveros (0-2). Ontiveros is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Benitez at 856 versus Ontiveros at 714. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benitez throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ontiveros is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Benitez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Benitez over Charlie Ontiveros. We're leaning Benitez here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 76% for Benitez, but our model sees only 69%. That 7-point gap favoring Ontiveros is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Tyson Nam (3-4) taking on Ode Osbourne (5-7). Osbourne will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Nam at 988 versus Osbourne at 846. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Osbourne throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Osbourne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Nam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ode Osbourne over Tyson Nam. We're leaning Osbourne here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Catch Weight matchup features Josh Quinlan (1-2) taking on Jason Witt (2-3). Quinlan is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Quinlan at 825, Witt at 824. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Witt throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Witt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.9 more per 15 minutes. Quinlan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Quinlan over Jason Witt. We're leaning Quinlan here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 72% for Quinlan, but our model sees only 66%. That 6-point gap favoring Witt is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Youssef Zalal (7-3-1) taking on Da'Mon Blackshear (5-3-1).

Zalal is rated at 1532 — 317 points above Blackshear's 1216. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Zalal rides a 4-fight win streak into this one, while Blackshear has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zalal throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Zalal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Blackshear has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Da'Mon Blackshear over Youssef Zalal. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Blackshear at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.