UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Saturday, July 30, 2022·Dallas, Texas, USA·13 fights
Model: 11/12(92%)
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Main Card
Women's BantamweightHIT
Amanda Nunes won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Nunes 79%21% Pena
Over/UnderOver 73%
Under 27%Over 73%
STRONGMarket: 70% (+9.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +86(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Nunes)
FlyweightHIT
Brandon Moreno won by KO/TKO (R3)
Moreno 68%32% Kara-France
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+2.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +102(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Kara-France)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Moreno)
HeavyweightHIT
Sergei Pavlovich won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pavlovich 64%36% Lewis
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEANMarket: 58% (+6.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -142(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Pavlovich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Lewis)
FlyweightHIT
Alexandre Pantoja won by Submission (R1)
Pantoja 55%45% Perez
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 62% (-7.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -38(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Perez)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Magomed Ankalaev won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ankalaev 88%12% Smith
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONGMarket: 82% (+5.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +32(favors Ankalaev)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Ankalaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Ankalaev)
Prelims
WelterweightMISS
Alex Morono won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morono 42%58% Semelsberger
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 39% (+3.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +61(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Morono)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Semelsberger)
LightweightHIT
Drew Dober won by KO/TKO (R3)
Dober 53%47% Alves
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
TOSS-UPMarket: 64% (-11.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +290(favors Dober)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Dober)
Heavyweight
Mayes 61%39% Abdelwahab
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEANMarket: 64% (-2.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -205(favors Abdelwahab)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Mayes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Mayes)
LightweightHIT
Drakkar Klose won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Klose 55%45% Garcia
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 66% (-10.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +206(favors Klose)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Klose)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Garcia)
Early Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Michael Morales won by KO/TKO (R3)
Morales 92%8% Fugitt
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
STRONGMarket: 84% (+8.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +254(favors Morales)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.3(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Fugitt)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Joselyne Edwards won by Decision - Split (R3)
Edwards 56%44% Kim
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 54% (+2.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +194(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Kim)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Edwards)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Nicolae Negumereanu won by KO/TKO (R2)
Negumereanu 59%41% Potieria
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
LEANMarket: 53% (+5.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +177(favors Negumereanu)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Negumereanu)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Negumereanu)
WelterweightHIT
Orion Cosce won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cosce 74%26% Diamond
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+10.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -226(favors Diamond)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Cosce)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Cosce)