UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Saturday, July 30, 2022·Dallas, Texas, USA
Model Record: 11/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's BantamweightHIT
Amanda Nunes won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Nunes 72%28% Pena
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+2.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +38(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Nunes)
FlyweightHIT
Brandon Moreno won by KO/TKO (R3)
Moreno 64%36% Kara-France
LEANMarket: 65% (-1.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +70(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Kara-France)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Moreno)
HeavyweightHIT
Sergei Pavlovich won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pavlovich 59%41% Lewis
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -130(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Pavlovich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Lewis)
FlyweightHIT
Alexandre Pantoja won by Submission (R1)
Pantoja 56%44% Perez
LEANMarket: 62% (-6.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -26(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Perez)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Magomed Ankalaev won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ankalaev 89%11% Smith
STRONGMarket: 82% (+6.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +29(favors Ankalaev)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Ankalaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Ankalaev)
WelterweightMISS
Alex Morono won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morono 49%51% Semelsberger
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +127(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Morono)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Semelsberger)
LightweightHIT
Drew Dober won by KO/TKO (R3)
Dober 51%49% Alves
TOSS-UPMarket: 64% (-13.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +299(favors Dober)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Dober)
Heavyweight
Mayes 48%52% Abdelwahab
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -199(favors Abdelwahab)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Mayes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Mayes)
LightweightHIT
Drakkar Klose won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Klose 59%41% Garcia
LEANMarket: 66% (-6.5% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +191(favors Klose)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Klose)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Garcia)
WelterweightHIT
Michael Morales won by KO/TKO (R3)
Morales 93%7% Fugitt
STRONGMarket: 84% (+9.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +161(favors Morales)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.3(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Fugitt)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Joselyne Edwards won by Decision - Split (R3)
Edwards 53%47% Kim
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-1.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +195(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Kim)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Edwards)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Nicolae Negumereanu won by KO/TKO (R2)
Negumereanu 51%49% Potieria
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +109(favors Negumereanu)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Negumereanu)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Negumereanu)
WelterweightHIT
Orion Cosce won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cosce 58%42% Diamond
LEAN
→Elo gap: -113(favors Diamond)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Cosce)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Cosce)