UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall
Saturday, July 23, 2022·London, England, United Kingdom·14 fights
Model: 11/14(79%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✗✓✓✓✓✗✗✓✓✓✓✓✓✓
Main Card
HeavyweightMISS
Curtis Blaydes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Blaydes 49%51% Aspinall
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
TOSS-UPMarket: 43% (+6.9% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +113(favors Blaydes)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Aspinall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Blaydes)
MiddleweightHIT
Jack Hermansson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hermansson 52%48% Curtis
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UPMarket: 50% (+1.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -44(favors Curtis)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Curtis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Hermansson)
LightweightHIT
Paddy Pimblett won by Submission (R2)
Pimblett 61%39% Leavitt
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 71% (-10.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +28(favors Pimblett)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Pimblett)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Pimblett)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Nikita Krylov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Krylov 58%42% Gustafsson
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 65% (-7.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -187(favors Gustafsson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Gustafsson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Krylov)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Molly McCann won by KO/TKO (R1)
McCann 86%14% Goldy
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +325(favors McCann)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors McCann)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors McCann)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Volkan Oezdemir won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Oezdemir 41%59% Craig
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 57% (-15.8% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -169(favors Craig)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Oezdemir)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Craig)
Prelims
LightweightMISS
Ludovit Klein won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Klein 32%68% Jones
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 21% (+10.9% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -132(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Jones)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Jones)
LightweightHIT
Marc Diakiese won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Diakiese 91%9% Hadzovic
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+12.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -168(favors Hadzovic)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Hadzovic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Diakiese)
FeatherweightHIT
Nathaniel Wood won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wood 81%19% Rosa
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 82% (-1.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +317(favors Wood)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Wood)
FeatherweightHIT
Jonathan Pearce won by KO/TKO (R2)
Pearce 62%38% Amirkhani
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 61% (+0.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +246(favors Pearce)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Pearce)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Pearce)
FlyweightHIT
Muhammad Mokaev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mokaev 86%14% Johnson
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+5.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +160(favors Mokaev)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Mokaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Johnson)
LightweightHIT
Jai Herbert won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Herbert 73%27% Nelson
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (+1.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +66(favors Herbert)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Nelson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Nelson)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Victoria Leonardo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Leonardo 51%49% Bohm
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (+1.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -133(favors Bohm)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Leonardo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bohm)
WelterweightHIT
Nicolas Dalby won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dalby 58%42% Silva
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 67% (-9.6% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -130(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Silva)