UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Israel Adesanya (13-4) taking on Jared Cannonier (11-8). Adesanya is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Adesanya at 1559 versus Cannonier at 1426. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannonier throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cannonier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Cannonier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Israel Adesanya over Jared Cannonier. The model is firm on this one: Adesanya at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Adesanya at 82% implied while our model sees 88% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight championship matchup features Alexander Volkanovski (14-3) taking on Max Holloway (22-8). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Holloway.

Holloway carries a modest Elo edge (1897 to 1824), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Volkanovski's striker game against Holloway's all-rounder approach. Volkanovski brings a versatile approach, while Holloway is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkanovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkanovski over Max Holloway. The model gives Volkanovski a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Alex Pereira (9-2) taking on Sean Strickland (16-7). Pereira is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Pereira is rated at 2004 — 190 points above Strickland's 1813. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Strickland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Strickland over Alex Pereira. The model gives Strickland a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 46% for Pereira, but our model sees only 39%. That 8-point gap favoring Strickland is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Barberena (9-9) taking on Robbie Lawler (14-10).

Lawler is rated at 1297 — 337 points above Barberena's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Barberena's all-rounder game against Lawler's striker approach. Barberena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lawler brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robbie Lawler over Bryan Barberena. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lawler at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Pedro Munhoz (10-9) taking on Sean O'Malley (10-3). O'Malley is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

O'Malley is rated at 1748 — 537 points above Munhoz's 1211. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Munhoz's all-rounder game against O'Malley's striker approach. Munhoz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while O'Malley brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Malley throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Malley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. O'Malley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean O'Malley over Pedro Munhoz. The model is firm on this one: O'Malley at 82%. The market implies 27% for Munhoz, but our model sees only 18%. That 9-point gap favoring O'Malley is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Jalin Turner (7-6) taking on Brad Riddell (4-2). Turner is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Turner is rated at 1393 — 305 points above Riddell's 1088. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Turner's submission artist game against Riddell's striker approach. Turner is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Riddell brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turner throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Riddell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Riddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jalin Turner over Brad Riddell. The model gives Turner a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-13). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Miller is rated at 1213 — 159 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Miller's knockout artist game against Cerrone's all-rounder approach. Miller is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Cerrone is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Donald Cerrone. The model is firm on this one: Miller at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Miller at 63% implied while our model sees 77% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Ian Machado Garry (9-1) taking on Gabe Green (2-3). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Garry.

Garry is rated at 1787 — 705 points above Green's 1082. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Garry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ian Machado Garry over Gabe Green. We're leaning Garry here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Dricus Du Plessis (9-0) taking on Brad Tavares (16-10).

Plessis is rated at 1860 — 936 points above Tavares's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Plessis rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Plessis's all-rounder game against Tavares's striker approach. Plessis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Tavares brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Plessis throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Plessis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Plessis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dricus Du Plessis over Brad Tavares. We're leaning Plessis here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Plessis at 62% implied while our model sees 65% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Andre Muniz (6-3) taking on Uriah Hall (10-8).

Hall is rated at 1378 — 344 points above Muniz's 1034. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Muniz's wrestler game against Hall's striker approach. Muniz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hall brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Muniz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Muniz over Uriah Hall. The model gives Muniz a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Maycee Barber (9-2) taking on Jessica Eye (5-9).

Barber is rated at 1543 — 593 points above Eye's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barber rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Barber's all-rounder game against Eye's striker approach. Barber is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Eye brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eye throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Barber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Barber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maycee Barber over Jessica Eye. The model is firm on this one: Barber at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Barber at 74% implied while our model sees 79% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Julija Stoliarenko (2-6) taking on Jessica-Rose Clark (4-4). Stoliarenko is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Stoliarenko at 842 versus Clark at 762. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Stoliarenko's wrestler game against Clark's striker approach. Stoliarenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Clark brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Clark has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica-Rose Clark over Julija Stoliarenko. The model gives Clark a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.