UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Mateusz Gamrot (8-3) taking on Arman Tsarukyan (9-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Gamrot.

Tsarukyan is rated at 1836 — 265 points above Gamrot's 1571. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Tsarukyan has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Gamrot's wrestler game against Tsarukyan's striker approach. Gamrot looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Tsarukyan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tsarukyan throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamrot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Gamrot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Arman Tsarukyan over Mateusz Gamrot. We're leaning Tsarukyan here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 31% for Gamrot, but our model sees only 27%. That 4-point gap favoring Tsarukyan is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Shavkat Rakhmonov (6-0) taking on Neil Magny (24-12). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rakhmonov is rated at 1831 — 561 points above Magny's 1270. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Rakhmonov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Rakhmonov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Magny is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rakhmonov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rakhmonov throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rakhmonov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Rakhmonov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shavkat Rakhmonov over Neil Magny. The model is firm on this one: Rakhmonov at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Josh Parisian (2-4) taking on Alan Baudot (0-2).

Parisian carries a modest Elo edge (772 to 718), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baudot throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Baudot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Parisian over Alan Baudot. The model gives Parisian a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Parisian at 53% implied while our model sees 56% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Moises (8-6) taking on Christos Giagos (6-7).

Moises is rated at 1124 — 184 points above Giagos's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Moises is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Giagos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Giagos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Giagos throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Giagos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Moises has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Moises over Christos Giagos. We're leaning Moises here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Umar Nurmagomedov (7-1) taking on Nate Maness (4-2). Maness is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Nurmagomedov is rated at 1701 — 524 points above Maness's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nurmagomedov's wrestler game against Maness's knockout artist approach. Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Maness is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov over Nate Maness. We're leaning Nurmagomedov here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Curtis (5-4) taking on Rodolfo Vieira (6-3).

Curtis is rated at 1258 — 190 points above Vieira's 1069. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Curtis's striker game against Vieira's wrestler approach. Curtis brings a versatile approach, while Vieira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curtis throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Vieira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.8 more per 15 minutes. Vieira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Curtis over Rodolfo Vieira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Curtis at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Carlos Ulberg (8-1) taking on Tafon Nchukwi (2-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Ulberg.

Ulberg is rated at 1803 — 1087 points above Nchukwi's 716. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ulberg rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ulberg's all-rounder game against Nchukwi's striker approach. Ulberg is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nchukwi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulberg throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ulberg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Nchukwi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tafon Nchukwi over Carlos Ulberg. The model gives Nchukwi a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (3-2) taking on TJ Brown (3-4). Brown will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Nuerdanbieke at 890, Brown at 876. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Nuerdanbieke's striker game against Brown's wrestler approach. Nuerdanbieke brings a versatile approach, while Brown looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Brown over Shayilan Nuerdanbieke. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brown at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Sergey Morozov (2-2) taking on Raulian Paiva (3-3). Paiva is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Morozov at 1124 versus Paiva at 1007. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Paiva throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Morozov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Morozov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raulian Paiva over Sergey Morozov. The model gives Paiva a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 60% for Morozov, but our model sees only 42%. That 17-point gap favoring Paiva is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Cody Durden (6-6-1) taking on JP Buys (0-3).

Durden is rated at 846 — 167 points above Buys's 679. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Durden throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Durden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Durden over JP Buys. The model gives Durden a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mario Bautista (10-3) taking on Brian Kelleher (8-8). Bautista is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Bautista is rated at 1566 — 800 points above Kelleher's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bautista's striker game against Kelleher's all-rounder approach. Bautista brings a versatile approach, while Kelleher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bautista throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelleher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Kelleher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mario Bautista over Brian Kelleher. The model gives Bautista a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Bautista, but our model sees only 59%. That 4-point gap favoring Kelleher is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Vanessa Demopoulos (5-4) taking on Jinh Yu Frey (2-5). Frey will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Demopoulos is rated at 883 — 153 points above Frey's 730. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Demopoulos throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Frey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Frey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jinh Yu Frey over Vanessa Demopoulos. We're leaning Frey here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 33% for Demopoulos, but our model sees only 27%. That 5-point gap favoring Frey is worth watching.