UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
Saturday, June 25, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 5/12(42%)
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Main Card
LightweightMISS
Mateusz Gamrot won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Gamrot 28%72% Tsarukyan
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-2.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +6(favors Gamrot)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Tsarukyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Gamrot)
WelterweightHIT
Shavkat Rakhmonov won by Submission (R2)
Rakhmonov 84%16% Magny
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+3.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -40(favors Magny)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Rakhmonov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Rakhmonov)
HeavyweightMISS
Josh Parisian won by KO/TKO (R2)
Parisian 50%50% Baudot
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (-3.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -140(favors Baudot)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Baudot)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Parisian)
LightweightHIT
Thiago Moises won by Submission (R1)
Moises 71%29% Giagos
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+1.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +125(favors Moises)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Giagos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.7(favors Giagos)
BantamweightHIT
Umar Nurmagomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nurmagomedov 93%7% Maness
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 87% (+5.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -50(favors Maness)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors Nurmagomedov)
MiddleweightMISS
Chris Curtis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Curtis 41%59% Vieira
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEANMarket: 52% (-11.5% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +474(favors Curtis)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.6(favors Curtis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.8(favors Vieira)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightMISS
Carlos Ulberg won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ulberg 41%59% Nchukwi
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEANMarket: 43% (-1.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +83(favors Ulberg)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Ulberg)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Ulberg)
FeatherweightMISS
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nuerdanbieke 30%70% Brown
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
CONFIDENTMarket: 35% (-4.9% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -115(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Brown)
BantamweightMISS
Sergey Morozov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morozov 49%51% Paiva
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-11.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -287(favors Paiva)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Paiva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Morozov)
FlyweightHIT
Cody Durden won by KO/TKO (R1)
Durden 52%48% Buys
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (+3.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +132(favors Durden)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Durden)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Durden)
BantamweightHIT
Mario Bautista won by Submission (R1)
Bautista 59%41% Kelleher
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 64% (-4.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -74(favors Kelleher)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Bautista)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Kelleher)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Vanessa Demopoulos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Demopoulos 32%68% Frey
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-0.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -36(favors Frey)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Demopoulos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Frey)