UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
Saturday, June 25, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightMISS
Mateusz Gamrot won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Gamrot 27%73% Tsarukyan
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-4.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -85(favors Tsarukyan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Tsarukyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Gamrot)
WelterweightHIT
Shavkat Rakhmonov won by Submission (R2)
Rakhmonov 82%18% Magny
STRONGMarket: 80% (+1.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -191(favors Magny)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Rakhmonov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Rakhmonov)
HeavyweightHIT
Josh Parisian won by KO/TKO (R2)
Parisian 56%44% Baudot
LEANMarket: 53% (+3.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -60(favors Baudot)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Baudot)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Parisian)
LightweightHIT
Thiago Moises won by Submission (R1)
Moises 66%34% Giagos
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (-2.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +67(favors Moises)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Giagos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.7(favors Giagos)
BantamweightHIT
Umar Nurmagomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nurmagomedov 67%33% Maness
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -34(favors Maness)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors Nurmagomedov)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Curtis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Curtis 51%49% Vieira
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-1.0% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +298(favors Curtis)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.6(favors Curtis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.8(favors Vieira)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Carlos Ulberg won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ulberg 40%60% Nchukwi
LEANMarket: 43% (-2.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +40(favors Ulberg)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Ulberg)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Ulberg)
FeatherweightMISS
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nuerdanbieke 49%51% Brown
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -43(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Brown)
BantamweightMISS
Sergey Morozov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morozov 42%58% Paiva
LEANMarket: 60% (-17.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -198(favors Paiva)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Paiva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Morozov)
FlyweightHIT
Cody Durden won by KO/TKO (R1)
Durden 56%44% Buys
LEAN
→Elo gap: +78(favors Durden)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Durden)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Durden)
BantamweightHIT
Mario Bautista won by Submission (R1)
Bautista 59%41% Kelleher
LEANMarket: 64% (-4.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +2(favors Bautista)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Bautista)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Kelleher)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Vanessa Demopoulos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Demopoulos 27%73% Frey
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-5.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -5(favors Frey)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Demopoulos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Frey)