UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jiri Prochazka (5-2) taking on Glover Teixeira (16-6). Prochazka will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Prochazka is rated at 1806 — 210 points above Teixeira's 1596. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Prochazka is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Teixeira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Teixeira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prochazka throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jiri Prochazka over Glover Teixeira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Prochazka at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 66% for Prochazka, but our model sees only 54%. That 12-point gap favoring Teixeira is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1) taking on Taila Santos (4-2).

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 535 points above Santos's 1262. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Shevchenko is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Santos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Santos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Valentina Shevchenko over Taila Santos. The model is firm on this one: Shevchenko at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Zhang Weili (10-2) taking on Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-4). Jedrzejczyk is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Weili is rated at 1649 — 457 points above Jedrzejczyk's 1192. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Weili rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jedrzejczyk throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Weili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Jedrzejczyk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk over Zhang Weili. The model gives Jedrzejczyk a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-7) taking on Andre Fialho (2-4).

Matthews is rated at 1295 — 430 points above Fialho's 865. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Matthews's all-rounder game against Fialho's striker approach. Matthews is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Fialho brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fialho throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Matthews over Andre Fialho. The model gives Matthews a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Matthews at 50% implied while our model sees 57% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Jack Della Maddalena (8-0) taking on Ramazan Emeev (5-2). Emeev will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Maddalena is rated at 1877 — 830 points above Emeev's 1047. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maddalena rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Maddalena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Emeev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Emeev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maddalena throws significantly more leather — a 11.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Emeev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Emeev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Della Maddalena over Ramazan Emeev. The model gives Maddalena a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Maddalena, but our model sees only 56%. That 6-point gap favoring Emeev is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Josh Culibao (3-3-1) taking on SeungWoo Choi (4-6).

Culibao is rated at 972 — 151 points above Choi's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Culibao's all-rounder game against Choi's striker approach. Culibao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Choi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Choi throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Choi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Culibao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: SeungWoo Choi over Josh Culibao. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Choi at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Maheshate (2-3) taking on Steve Garcia (7-2). Garcia will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Garcia is rated at 1593 — 775 points above Maheshate's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Garcia has won 6 straight.

The style clash matters here: Maheshate brings a versatile approach, while Garcia is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Garcia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Maheshate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Garcia over Maheshate. The model gives Garcia a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Brendan Allen (13-4) taking on Jacob Malkoun (4-3). Allen is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Allen is rated at 1696 — 375 points above Malkoun's 1322. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Allen's all-rounder game against Malkoun's striker approach. Allen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Malkoun brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Allen throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Malkoun is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.2 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Allen over Jacob Malkoun. We're leaning Allen here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Kyung Ho Kang (8-4) taking on Batgerel Danaa (3-3). Kang is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kang at 1029 versus Danaa at 887. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Kang's wrestler game against Danaa's striker approach. Kang looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Danaa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danaa throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Kang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyung Ho Kang over Batgerel Danaa. The model gives Kang a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Silvana Gomez Juarez (1-2) taking on Liang Na (0-3). Na is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Juarez is rated at 847 — 257 points above Na's 590. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Na throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Na is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.0 more per 15 minutes. Juarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Liang Na over Silvana Gomez Juarez. The model gives Na a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Joselyne Edwards (7-4) taking on Ramona Pascual (0-2). Edwards will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Edwards is rated at 1320 — 536 points above Pascual's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Edwards rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pascual throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pascual is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Pascual has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joselyne Edwards over Ramona Pascual. The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.