UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight championship matchup features Ketlen Vieira (9-4) taking on Holly Holm (8-6).

Vieira is rated at 1294 — 167 points above Holm's 1127. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holm throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Holm is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Holm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Holly Holm over Ketlen Vieira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Holm at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Vieira at 33% implied while our model sees 49% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Michel Pereira (9-5) taking on Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7).

Ponzinibbio carries a modest Elo edge (1177 to 1113), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Pereira's all-rounder game against Ponzinibbio's striker approach. Pereira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ponzinibbio brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ponzinibbio throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pereira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michel Pereira over Santiago Ponzinibbio. The model gives Pereira a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Pereira at 56% implied while our model sees 60% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Chidi Njokuani (5-4) taking on Dusko Todorovic (3-6). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Njokuani is rated at 1083 — 211 points above Todorovic's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Njokuani's striker game against Todorovic's submission artist approach. Njokuani brings a versatile approach, while Todorovic is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Njokuani throws significantly more leather — a 35.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Todorovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Todorovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chidi Njokuani over Dusko Todorovic. The model gives Njokuani a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tabatha Ricci (6-3) taking on Polyana Viana (4-6). Viana is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Ricci is rated at 1355 — 487 points above Viana's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ricci is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Viana looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Viana the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Viana throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ricci is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Ricci has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Polyana Viana over Tabatha Ricci. The model gives Viana a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 55% for Ricci, but our model sees only 41%. That 13-point gap favoring Viana is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features JunYong Park (9-3) taking on Eryk Anders (9-8). Anders is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Park at 1235 versus Anders at 1106. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Park's all-rounder game against Anders's striker approach. Park is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Anders brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Park throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Park is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Anders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: JunYong Park over Eryk Anders. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Park at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Joseph Holmes (1-2) taking on Alen Amedovski (0-3). Holmes is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Holmes at 760 versus Amedovski at 649. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holmes throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Amedovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Holmes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joseph Holmes over Alen Amedovski. The model is firm on this one: Holmes at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Holmes at 65% implied while our model sees 77% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jailton Almeida (8-2) taking on Parker Porter (4-3). Almeida is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Almeida is rated at 1428 — 545 points above Porter's 883. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Almeida's wrestler game against Porter's striker approach. Almeida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Porter brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.7 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jailton Almeida over Parker Porter. The model is firm on this one: Almeida at 79%.

The Lightweight matchup features Uros Medic (6-3) taking on Omar Morales (3-3).

Medic is rated at 1484 — 658 points above Morales's 826. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medic throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Morales is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uros Medic over Omar Morales. The model gives Medic a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Medic at 44% implied while our model sees 57% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jonathan Martinez (10-4) taking on Vince Morales (3-7).

Martinez is rated at 1343 — 491 points above Morales's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Morales is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Martinez over Vince Morales. We're leaning Martinez here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Chase Hooper (8-3) taking on Felipe Colares (2-3). Hooper is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Hooper is rated at 1175 — 300 points above Colares's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hooper rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Hooper is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Colares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Colares the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooper throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Colares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Hooper has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Hooper over Felipe Colares. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hooper at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Hooper at 39% implied while our model sees 52% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Sam Hughes (5-5) taking on Elise Reed (4-4).

Hughes is rated at 1232 — 300 points above Reed's 933. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hughes's all-rounder game against Reed's striker approach. Hughes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Reed brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reed throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Reed has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elise Reed over Sam Hughes. We're leaning Reed here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 44% for Hughes, but our model sees only 34%. That 9-point gap favoring Reed is worth watching.