UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jamahal Hill (6-3) taking on Johnny Walker (7-6). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Walker carries a modest Elo edge (1432 to 1396), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamahal Hill over Johnny Walker. The model gives Hill a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 70% for Hill, but our model sees only 65%. That 5-point gap favoring Walker is worth watching.

The Catch Weight matchup features Kyle Daukaus (3-4) taking on Jamie Pickett (2-6). Pickett will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Daukaus is rated at 1170 — 497 points above Pickett's 673. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Daukaus's submission artist game against Pickett's striker approach. Daukaus is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Pickett brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pickett throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Daukaus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Pickett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyle Daukaus over Jamie Pickett. The model is firm on this one: Daukaus at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Daukaus at 72% implied while our model sees 76% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Parker Porter (4-3) taking on Alan Baudot (0-2). Baudot is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Porter is rated at 883 — 164 points above Baudot's 718. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Porter throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Porter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Porter has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Parker Porter over Alan Baudot. We're leaning Porter here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Nikolas Motta (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Miller at 1213 versus Motta at 1072. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Miller's wrestler game against Motta's striker approach. Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Motta brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Motta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Nikolas Motta. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miller at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Miller at 38% implied while our model sees 50% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Joaquin Buckley (11-4) taking on Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-6). Buckley will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Buckley is rated at 1728 — 754 points above Alhassan's 973. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Buckley rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buckley throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Buckley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Buckley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joaquin Buckley over Abdul Razak Alhassan. We're leaning Buckley here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Buckley at 58% implied while our model sees 74% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features David Onama (6-2) taking on Gabriel Benitez (7-7). Onama is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Onama is rated at 1311 — 455 points above Benitez's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Onama rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Onama's all-rounder game against Benitez's knockout artist approach. Onama is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Benitez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Onama throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Benitez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Benitez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Onama over Gabriel Benitez. The model gives Onama a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Stephanie Egger (3-3) taking on Jessica-Rose Clark (4-4). Egger will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Egger is rated at 936 — 175 points above Clark's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Egger looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Clark is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Egger the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Egger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Clark has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica-Rose Clark over Stephanie Egger. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Clark at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Egger at 37% implied while our model sees 46% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Chas Skelly (7-3) taking on Mark Striegl (0-1). Skelly is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Skelly is rated at 1251 — 364 points above Striegl's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Striegl throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Skelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Skelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chas Skelly over Mark Striegl. We're leaning Skelly here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Gloria de Paula (1-2) taking on Diana Belbita (2-5).

Paula carries a modest Elo edge (815 to 739), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belbita throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Belbita is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Paula has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gloria de Paula over Diana Belbita. The model gives Paula a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Paula at 48% implied while our model sees 55% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chad Anheliger (2-2) taking on Jesse Strader (0-1). Strader will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Anheliger carries a modest Elo edge (892 to 823), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strader throws significantly more leather — a 7.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Strader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Anheliger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chad Anheliger over Jesse Strader. We're leaning Anheliger here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Jonathan Pearce (5-3) taking on Christian Rodriguez (5-3). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Pearce.

Rodriguez carries a modest Elo edge (1041 to 996), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearce throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.4 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Pearce over Christian Rodriguez. The model is firm on this one: Pearce at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Pearce at 78% implied while our model sees 83% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mario Bautista (10-3) taking on Jay Perrin (0-2). Bautista is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Bautista is rated at 1566 — 785 points above Perrin's 781. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bautista throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bautista is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Perrin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mario Bautista over Jay Perrin. We're leaning Bautista here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 76% for Bautista, but our model sees only 70%. That 5-point gap favoring Perrin is worth watching.