UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Israel Adesanya (13-4) taking on Robert Whittaker (17-6). Adesanya is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Adesanya carries a modest Elo edge (1559 to 1528), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Whittaker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Adesanya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Israel Adesanya over Robert Whittaker. The model is firm on this one: Adesanya at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Adesanya at 73% implied while our model sees 81% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tai Tuivasa (8-8) taking on Derrick Lewis (20-10). Lewis will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 259 points above Tuivasa's 1107. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuivasa throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Tuivasa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Tai Tuivasa. The model gives Lewis a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Tuivasa at 38% implied while our model sees 43% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jared Cannonier (11-8) taking on Derek Brunson (14-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Cannonier at 1426, Brunson at 1402. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Cannonier's striker game against Brunson's wrestler approach. Cannonier brings a versatile approach, while Brunson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brunson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Cannonier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Cannonier over Derek Brunson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cannonier at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Cannonier, but our model sees only 52%. That 8-point gap favoring Brunson is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Renato Moicano (12-6) taking on Alexander Hernandez (9-7).

Moicano carries a modest Elo edge (1542 to 1469), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Hernandez has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Moicano's wrestler game against Hernandez's striker approach. Moicano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hernandez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Hernandez over Renato Moicano. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hernandez at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Moicano, but our model sees only 45%. That 15-point gap favoring Hernandez is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (13-12-1) taking on Nasrat Haqparast (10-4).

Haqparast carries a modest Elo edge (1235 to 1176), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Haqparast has won 5 straight.

Stylistically this is Green's all-rounder game against Haqparast's striker approach. Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Haqparast brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Haqparast has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: King Green over Nasrat Haqparast. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Green at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Green, but our model sees only 52%. That 6-point gap favoring Haqparast is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Jared Vanderaa (1-5). Vanderaa will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Arlovski is rated at 858 — 187 points above Vanderaa's 671. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Arlovski's all-rounder game against Vanderaa's striker approach. Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Vanderaa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Vanderaa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Vanderaa over Andrei Arlovski. The model gives Vanderaa a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 60% for Arlovski, but our model sees only 43%. That 16-point gap favoring Vanderaa is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Casey O'Neill (4-2) taking on Roxanne Modafferi (4-7).

O'Neill is rated at 1172 — 194 points above Modafferi's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is O'Neill's all-rounder game against Modafferi's striker approach. O'Neill is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Modafferi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Neill throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Neill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Modafferi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Casey O'Neill over Roxanne Modafferi. The model is firm on this one: O'Neill at 89%. Notably, the betting market has O'Neill at 77% implied while our model sees 89% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Kyler Phillips (6-2) taking on Marcelo Rojo (0-2).

Phillips is rated at 1238 — 454 points above Rojo's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rojo throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyler Phillips over Marcelo Rojo. The model is firm on this one: Phillips at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Phillips at 79% implied while our model sees 89% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Carlos Ulberg (8-1) taking on Fabio Cherant (0-2). Ulberg is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Ulberg is rated at 1803 — 1059 points above Cherant's 744. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ulberg rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulberg throws significantly more leather — a 14.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cherant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ulberg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Ulberg over Fabio Cherant. The model gives Ulberg a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 69% for Ulberg, but our model sees only 65%. That 4-point gap favoring Cherant is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ronnie Lawrence (2-1) taking on Mana Martinez (2-1). Martinez is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lawrence at 1079 versus Martinez at 957. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawrence throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawrence is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.5 more per 15 minutes. Lawrence has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ronnie Lawrence over Mana Martinez. We're leaning Lawrence here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacob Malkoun (4-3) taking on AJ Dobson (1-2). Dobson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Malkoun is rated at 1322 — 485 points above Dobson's 836. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malkoun throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Malkoun is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.8 more per 15 minutes. Dobson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: AJ Dobson over Jacob Malkoun. The model gives Dobson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Douglas Silva de Andrade (7-5) taking on Sergey Morozov (2-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Andrade at 1146, Morozov at 1124. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Morozov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Morozov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergey Morozov over Douglas Silva de Andrade. We're leaning Morozov here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 33% for Andrade, but our model sees only 27%. That 6-point gap favoring Morozov is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Jeremiah Wells (4-2) taking on Blood Diamond (0-2). Diamond is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Wells is rated at 1254 — 463 points above Diamond's 791. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wells throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Diamond is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Diamond has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremiah Wells over Blood Diamond. The model gives Wells a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Maxim Grishin (2-2) taking on William Knight (3-3). Grishin is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Grishin is rated at 1009 — 171 points above Knight's 838. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grishin throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Knight is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Grishin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: William Knight over Maxim Grishin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Knight at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Grishin, but our model sees only 49%. That 12-point gap favoring Knight is worth watching.