UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Francis Ngannou (11-2) taking on Ciryl Gane (10-2).

Ngannou is rated at 2148 — 264 points above Gane's 1884. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ngannou rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ngannou's knockout artist game against Gane's all-rounder approach. Ngannou is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Gane is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ngannou throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ngannou is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Gane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane over Francis Ngannou. The model gives Gane a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight championship matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1) taking on Brandon Moreno (11-5-2). Moreno is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Figueiredo at 1490 versus Moreno at 1410. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Figueiredo's knockout artist game against Moreno's all-rounder approach. Figueiredo is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Moreno is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Figueiredo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Moreno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Deiveson Figueiredo. We're leaning Moreno here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 37% for Figueiredo, but our model sees only 26%. That 11-point gap favoring Moreno is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Michel Pereira (9-5) taking on Andre Fialho (2-4).

Pereira is rated at 1113 — 247 points above Fialho's 865. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pereira's wrestler game against Fialho's striker approach. Pereira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Fialho brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pereira throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pereira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Fialho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michel Pereira over Andre Fialho. We're leaning Pereira here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Said Nurmagomedov (7-3) taking on Cody Stamann (7-6-1). Nurmagomedov is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Nurmagomedov is rated at 1181 — 249 points above Stamann's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nurmagomedov's wrestler game against Stamann's striker approach. Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stamann brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Stamann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Stamann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Said Nurmagomedov over Cody Stamann. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nurmagomedov at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Nurmagomedov, but our model sees only 52%. That 11-point gap favoring Stamann is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Morales (6-0) taking on Trevin Giles (7-6). Morales will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Morales is rated at 1853 — 1009 points above Giles's 845. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Morales rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Morales's striker game against Giles's all-rounder approach. Morales brings a versatile approach, while Giles is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Giles throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Giles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trevin Giles over Michael Morales. The model gives Giles a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Morales, but our model sees only 41%. That 8-point gap favoring Giles is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Victor Henry (3-2) taking on Raoni Barcelos (9-4).

Barcelos is rated at 1410 — 275 points above Henry's 1135. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barcelos has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barcelos throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barcelos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Henry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raoni Barcelos over Victor Henry. The model is firm on this one: Barcelos at 84%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Jack Della Maddalena (8-0) taking on Pete Rodriguez (1-1). Maddalena is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Maddalena is rated at 1877 — 1014 points above Rodriguez's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maddalena rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Della Maddalena over Pete Rodriguez. The model is firm on this one: Maddalena at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Tony Gravely (4-3) taking on Saimon Oliveira (0-3). Oliveira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gravely is rated at 1012 — 352 points above Oliveira's 660. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gravely throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gravely is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.1 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Gravely over Saimon Oliveira. We're leaning Gravely here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Frevola (5-5-1) taking on Genaro Valdez (0-2).

Frevola is rated at 1093 — 379 points above Valdez's 714. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frevola throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Frevola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Valdez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Frevola over Genaro Valdez. The model gives Frevola a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for Frevola, but our model sees only 59%. That 7-point gap favoring Valdez is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Vanessa Demopoulos (5-4) taking on Silvana Gomez Juarez (1-2). Juarez will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Demopoulos carries a modest Elo edge (883 to 847), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Demopoulos throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Juarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Demopoulos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vanessa Demopoulos over Silvana Gomez Juarez. The model gives Demopoulos a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-2) taking on Kay Hansen (1-2). Jasudavicius is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Jasudavicius is rated at 1358 — 508 points above Hansen's 850. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jasudavicius rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hansen throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hansen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Jasudavicius has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kay Hansen over Jasmine Jasudavicius. The model gives Hansen a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Jasudavicius at 36% implied while our model sees 40% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.