UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Calvin Kattar (7-7) taking on Giga Chikadze (8-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kattar at 1231 versus Chikadze at 1150. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Kattar brings a versatile approach, while Chikadze is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Chikadze the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kattar throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Chikadze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Chikadze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Giga Chikadze over Calvin Kattar. The model is firm on this one: Chikadze at 76%. The market implies 34% for Kattar, but our model sees only 24%. That 10-point gap favoring Chikadze is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jake Collier (5-8) taking on Chase Sherman (4-10).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Collier at 794, Sherman at 822. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Collier's all-rounder game against Sherman's striker approach. Collier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sherman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Collier throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sherman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Collier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Collier over Chase Sherman. The model gives Collier a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Royval (7-4) taking on Rogerio Bontorin (2-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Royval.

Royval is rated at 1314 — 434 points above Bontorin's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Royval throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bontorin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Royval has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Royval over Rogerio Bontorin. The model gives Royval a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 60% for Royval, but our model sees only 57%. That 4-point gap favoring Bontorin is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Katlyn Cerminara (11-5) taking on Jennifer Maia (6-5). Cerminara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Cerminara at 1283 versus Maia at 1193. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerminara throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerminara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Katlyn Cerminara over Jennifer Maia. We're leaning Cerminara here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Viacheslav Borshchev (3-5-1) taking on Dakota Bush (0-1). Bush will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Borshchev at 812, Bush at 818. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bush throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Borshchev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Viacheslav Borshchev over Dakota Bush. The model gives Borshchev a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Borshchev, but our model sees only 60%. That 5-point gap favoring Bush is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Bill Algeo (5-4) taking on Joanderson Brito (5-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Algeo.

Brito is rated at 1283 — 369 points above Algeo's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Algeo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brito is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brito the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Algeo throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Algeo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Brito has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanderson Brito over Bill Algeo. The model gives Brito a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 41% for Algeo, but our model sees only 38%. That 3-point gap favoring Brito is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Jamie Pickett (2-6) taking on Joseph Holmes (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Holmes at 760 versus Pickett at 673. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pickett throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Holmes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joseph Holmes over Jamie Pickett. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Holmes at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Pickett at 40% implied while our model sees 46% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Court McGee (11-12) taking on Ramiz Brahimaj (5-3). McGee will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brahimaj at 1144 versus McGee at 1037. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Brahimaj has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: McGee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brahimaj is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brahimaj the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Brahimaj is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Brahimaj has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ramiz Brahimaj over Court McGee. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brahimaj at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Brian Kelleher (8-8) taking on Kevin Croom (0-2). Croom is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Croom at 848 versus Kelleher at 766. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelleher throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelleher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Kelleher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brian Kelleher over Kevin Croom. The model is firm on this one: Kelleher at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Kelleher at 79% implied while our model sees 88% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features TJ Brown (3-4) taking on Charles Rosa (5-7). Brown will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Brown carries a modest Elo edge (876 to 817), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Brown over Charles Rosa. We're leaning Brown here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.