UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Chris Daukaus (4-3). Lewis will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 258 points above Daukaus's 1108. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Daukaus throws significantly more leather — a 7.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Daukaus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Daukaus over Derrick Lewis. The model gives Daukaus a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 44% for Lewis, but our model sees only 40%. That 3-point gap favoring Daukaus is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Belal Muhammad (15-4) taking on Stephen Thompson (12-8-1). Thompson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 418 points above Thompson's 1329. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Muhammad's all-rounder game against Thompson's striker approach. Muhammad is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Thompson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Muhammad throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Muhammad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephen Thompson over Belal Muhammad. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Thompson at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Muhammad at 33% implied while our model sees 45% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Lemos (9-4) taking on Angela Hill (13-15).

Lemos is rated at 1335 — 262 points above Hill's 1074. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lemos's knockout artist game against Hill's all-rounder approach. Lemos is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Hill is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lemos throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lemos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Lemos over Angela Hill. We're leaning Lemos here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricky Simon (10-5) taking on Raphael Assuncao (12-6). Simon will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Simon at 1223 versus Assuncao at 1099. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Simon looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Assuncao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Simon the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Simon throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricky Simon over Raphael Assuncao. The model is firm on this one: Simon at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Simon at 73% implied while our model sees 85% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Mateusz Gamrot (8-3) taking on Diego Ferreira (10-6). Ferreira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gamrot is rated at 1571 — 358 points above Ferreira's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gamrot looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gamrot the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamrot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Gamrot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mateusz Gamrot over Diego Ferreira. The model gives Gamrot a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (14-10) taking on Darren Elkins (19-10).

There's a real Elo separation here: Swanson at 1255 versus Elkins at 1113. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Swanson's striker game against Elkins's wrestler approach. Swanson brings a versatile approach, while Elkins looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Swanson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Elkins over Cub Swanson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Elkins at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Swanson, but our model sees only 50%. That 11-point gap favoring Elkins is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Meerschaert (12-12) taking on Dustin Stoltzfus (3-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Stoltzfus at 1012 versus Meerschaert at 867. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Meerschaert throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Meerschaert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert over Dustin Stoltzfus. The model gives Meerschaert a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 69% for Meerschaert, but our model sees only 56%. That 13-point gap favoring Stoltzfus is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Justin Tafa (4-4) taking on Harry Hunsucker (0-2).

Tafa is rated at 938 — 213 points above Hunsucker's 725. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tafa throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hunsucker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tafa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Tafa over Harry Hunsucker. The model is firm on this one: Tafa at 75%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Melissa Gatto (2-2) taking on Sijara Eubanks (5-4).

Gatto is rated at 1148 — 174 points above Eubanks's 974. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gatto throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Eubanks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Eubanks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melissa Gatto over Sijara Eubanks. We're leaning Gatto here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Gatto at 39% implied while our model sees 68% — a 29-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Jourdain (7-7-1) taking on Andre Ewell (4-4). Ewell will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jourdain is rated at 1354 — 487 points above Ewell's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jourdain's knockout artist game against Ewell's all-rounder approach. Jourdain is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Ewell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jourdain throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ewell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Jourdain has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Jourdain over Andre Ewell. We're leaning Jourdain here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Jourdain at 66% implied while our model sees 70% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-5) taking on Macy Chiasson (8-4). Chiasson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Pennington is rated at 1411 — 266 points above Chiasson's 1145. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chiasson throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiasson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raquel Pennington over Macy Chiasson. The model gives Pennington a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Don'Tale Mayes (4-6) taking on Josh Parisian (2-4). Mayes is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Mayes carries a modest Elo edge (849 to 772), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parisian throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Parisian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Parisian over Don'Tale Mayes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Parisian at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jordan Leavitt (5-3) taking on Matt Sayles (1-2). Leavitt is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Leavitt is rated at 1198 — 330 points above Sayles's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sayles throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Leavitt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Sayles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jordan Leavitt over Matt Sayles. We're leaning Leavitt here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Leavitt at 57% implied while our model sees 75% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.