UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Saturday, December 18, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightMISS
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lewis 40%60% Daukaus
LEANMarket: 44% (-3.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +146(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: -7.1(favors Daukaus)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Lewis)
WelterweightMISS
Belal Muhammad won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Muhammad 45%55% Thompson
TOSS-UPMarket: 33% (+12.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -7(favors Thompson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Muhammad)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Muhammad)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Amanda Lemos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lemos 75%25% Hill
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (+2.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +250(favors Lemos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Lemos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Lemos)
BantamweightHIT
Ricky Simon won by KO/TKO (R2)
Simon 85%15% Assuncao
STRONGMarket: 73% (+11.6% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +132(favors Simon)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Simon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.5(favors Simon)
LightweightHIT
Mateusz Gamrot won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gamrot 63%37% Ferreira
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -95(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.6(favors Gamrot)
FeatherweightMISS
Cub Swanson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Swanson 50%50% Elkins
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-11.3% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -77(favors Elkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Elkins)
MiddleweightHIT
Gerald Meerschaert won by Submission (R3)
Meerschaert 56%44% Stoltzfus
LEANMarket: 69% (-13.2% edge)
Submission Artist vs Submission Artist — Submission Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +445(favors Meerschaert)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Meerschaert)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Meerschaert)
HeavyweightHIT
Justin Tafa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tafa 75%25% Hunsucker
STRONGMarket: 74% (+1.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -67(favors Hunsucker)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Tafa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hunsucker)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Melissa Gatto won by KO/TKO (R3)
Gatto 68%32% Eubanks
CONFIDENTMarket: 39% (+29.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -29(favors Eubanks)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Gatto)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Eubanks)
FeatherweightHIT
Charles Jourdain won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jourdain 70%30% Ewell
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+4.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +64(favors Jourdain)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Jourdain)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Ewell)
Women's FeatherweightHIT
Raquel Pennington won by Submission (R2)
Pennington 56%44% Chiasson
LEANMarket: 57% (-1.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +92(favors Pennington)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Chiasson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Chiasson)
HeavyweightMISS
Don'Tale Mayes won by KO/TKO (R3)
Mayes 48%52% Parisian
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -1(favors Parisian)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Parisian)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Parisian)
LightweightHIT
Jordan Leavitt won by Submission (R2)
Leavitt 75%25% Sayles
CONFIDENTMarket: 57% (+18.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +76(favors Leavitt)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Sayles)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Leavitt)