UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-6) taking on Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Teixeira at 1596, Blachowicz at 1578. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Teixeira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Teixeira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jan Blachowicz over Glover Teixeira. We're leaning Blachowicz here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Petr Yan (11-4) taking on Cory Sandhagen (11-4). Sandhagen is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Yan is rated at 1869 — 162 points above Sandhagen's 1707. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Yan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Yan's striker game against Sandhagen's all-rounder approach. Yan brings a versatile approach, while Sandhagen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yan throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Yan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Yan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over Cory Sandhagen. We're leaning Yan here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Yan at 67% implied while our model sees 74% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Dan Hooker (14-9). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 760 points above Hooker's 1450. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Makhachev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hooker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Makhachev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Makhachev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Dan Hooker. We're leaning Makhachev here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Volkov (12-5) taking on Marcin Tybura (14-8). Volkov is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Volkov is rated at 1754 — 513 points above Tybura's 1242. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkov throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Tybura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkov over Marcin Tybura. The model is firm on this one: Volkov at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Volkov at 72% implied while our model sees 76% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Khamzat Chimaev (8-0) taking on Li Jingliang (11-6). Chimaev is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Chimaev is rated at 1987 — 717 points above Jingliang's 1270. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Chimaev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Chimaev's submission artist game against Jingliang's striker approach. Chimaev is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Jingliang brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chimaev throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Chimaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Chimaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khamzat Chimaev over Li Jingliang. The model is firm on this one: Chimaev at 77%. The market implies 83% for Chimaev, but our model sees only 77%. That 6-point gap favoring Jingliang is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Magomed Ankalaev (12-1-1) taking on Volkan Oezdemir (8-7).

Ankalaev is rated at 1772 — 272 points above Oezdemir's 1501. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oezdemir throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ankalaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Ankalaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev over Volkan Oezdemir. The model is firm on this one: Ankalaev at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Ankalaev at 73% implied while our model sees 84% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Ribas (7-5) taking on Virna Jandiroba (8-3).

Jandiroba is rated at 1457 — 409 points above Ribas's 1048. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jandiroba has won 5 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribas throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jandiroba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Ribas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Ribas over Virna Jandiroba. We're leaning Ribas here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ribas at 60% implied while our model sees 70% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Zubaira Tukhugov (5-2-1) taking on Ricardo Ramos (8-6). Ramos will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Tukhugov is rated at 1132 — 304 points above Ramos's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tukhugov's striker game against Ramos's wrestler approach. Tukhugov brings a versatile approach, while Ramos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Tukhugov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Ramos over Zubaira Tukhugov. We're leaning Ramos here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 60% for Tukhugov, but our model sees only 35%. That 26-point gap favoring Ramos is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Albert Duraev (2-1) taking on Roman Kopylov (6-4).

Kopylov is rated at 1277 — 278 points above Duraev's 999. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kopylov throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kopylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Duraev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Albert Duraev over Roman Kopylov. The model is firm on this one: Duraev at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Duraev at 78% implied while our model sees 87% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1) taking on Benoit Saint Denis (8-3).

Denis is rated at 1743 — 702 points above Santos's 1041. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Denis has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Denis is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Denis the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Denis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Benoit Saint Denis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7) taking on Shamil Gamzatov (1-0). Gamzatov is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Oleksiejczuk is rated at 1268 — 322 points above Gamzatov's 946. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gamzatov throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamzatov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk over Shamil Gamzatov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oleksiejczuk at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Oleksiejczuk at 48% implied while our model sees 54% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Lerone Murphy (8-0-1) taking on Makwan Amirkhani (7-6).

Murphy is rated at 1654 — 689 points above Amirkhani's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murphy rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Murphy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Amirkhani looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Amirkhani the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Amirkhani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Murphy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lerone Murphy over Makwan Amirkhani. We're leaning Murphy here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Andre Petroski (8-3) taking on Hu Yaozong (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Yaozong.

Petroski is rated at 967 — 272 points above Yaozong's 696. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yaozong throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Petroski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Petroski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Petroski over Hu Yaozong. The model is firm on this one: Petroski at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Petroski at 67% implied while our model sees 77% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Tagir Ulanbekov (6-1) taking on Allan Nascimento (3-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ulanbekov at 1261, Nascimento at 1266. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Both fighters bring momentum: Ulanbekov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one, while Nascimento has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulanbekov throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ulanbekov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Nascimento has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tagir Ulanbekov over Allan Nascimento. The model is firm on this one: Ulanbekov at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Ulanbekov at 77% implied while our model sees 84% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.