UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
Saturday, October 23, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Marvin Vettori won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Vettori 72%28% Costa
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+8.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -70(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Vettori)
Lightweight
Dawson 67%33% Glenn
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +304(favors Dawson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Glenn)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Dawson)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Jessica-Rose Clark won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Clark 42%58% Edwards
LEANMarket: 59% (-17.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +50(favors Clark)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Clark)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Clark)
FeatherweightHIT
Alex Caceres won by Submission (R2)
Caceres 55%45% Choi
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Caceres)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Caceres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Choi)
WelterweightMISS
Francisco Trinaldo won by Decision - Split (R3)
Trinaldo 44%56% Grant
LEANMarket: 56% (-12.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +218(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Grant)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Trinaldo)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Nicolae Negumereanu won by KO/TKO (R1)
Negumereanu 70%30% Villanueva
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +238(favors Negumereanu)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Villanueva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Villanueva)
MiddleweightHIT
Gregory Rodrigues won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rodrigues 65%35% Park
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -39(favors Park)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Rodrigues)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Park)
LightweightHIT
Mason Jones won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jones 87%13% Onama
STRONGMarket: 78% (+8.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -65(favors Onama)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.3(favors Jones)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Jones)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Tabatha Ricci won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ricci 70%30% Oliveira
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (-0.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -83(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Ricci)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Oliveira)
MiddleweightMISS
Jamie Pickett won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pickett 28%72% Staropoli
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-5.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors Staropoli)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Staropoli)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Pickett)
LightweightHIT
Jai Herbert won by KO/TKO (R1)
Herbert 53%47% Worthy
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-8.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +2(favors Herbert)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Worthy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Worthy)
FlyweightHIT
Jeff Molina won by KO/TKO (R2)
Molina 66%34% Lacerda
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+5.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +85(favors Molina)
→Striking volume advantage: +12.6(favors Molina)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lacerda)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Randa Markos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Markos 43%57% Souza
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -101(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Markos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Souza)
BantamweightMISS
Jonathan Martinez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Martinez 44%56% Lazishvili
LEANMarket: 48% (-4.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +42(favors Martinez)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.4(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Martinez)