UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Marvin Vettori (9-7-1) taking on Paulo Costa (6-4).

Costa is rated at 1513 — 234 points above Vettori's 1280. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Vettori's wrestler game against Costa's striker approach. Vettori looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Costa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Vettori is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marvin Vettori over Paulo Costa. We're leaning Vettori here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Vettori at 63% implied while our model sees 72% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Grant Dawson (11-1-1) taking on Ricky Glenn (4-5-1).

Dawson is rated at 1336 — 449 points above Glenn's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dawson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Dawson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Glenn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dawson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Glenn throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Dawson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Glenn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Grant Dawson over Ricky Glenn. We're leaning Dawson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jessica-Rose Clark (4-4) taking on Joselyne Edwards (7-4). Edwards is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Edwards is rated at 1320 — 558 points above Clark's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Edwards has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Clark is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Edwards looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Edwards the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Clark has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joselyne Edwards over Jessica-Rose Clark. The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 59% for Clark, but our model sees only 42%. That 17-point gap favoring Edwards is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on SeungWoo Choi (4-6).

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 411 points above Choi's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Caceres is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Choi brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Caceres the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Choi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over SeungWoo Choi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Caceres at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-7) taking on Dwight Grant (3-4). Grant is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Trinaldo is rated at 1329 — 499 points above Grant's 830. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Trinaldo's all-rounder game against Grant's striker approach. Trinaldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Grant brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Trinaldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dwight Grant over Francisco Trinaldo. The model gives Grant a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 56% for Trinaldo, but our model sees only 44%. That 12-point gap favoring Grant is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Nicolae Negumereanu (4-1) taking on Ike Villanueva (1-4). Negumereanu will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Negumereanu is rated at 1019 — 366 points above Villanueva's 653. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Negumereanu rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villanueva throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Villanueva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Villanueva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nicolae Negumereanu over Ike Villanueva. We're leaning Negumereanu here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Gregory Rodrigues (8-3) taking on JunYong Park (9-3). Rodrigues is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Rodrigues is rated at 1515 — 280 points above Park's 1235. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rodrigues's striker game against Park's wrestler approach. Rodrigues brings a versatile approach, while Park looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodrigues throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Park is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rodrigues has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gregory Rodrigues over JunYong Park. The model gives Rodrigues a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Mason Jones (2-2) taking on David Onama (6-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Onama at 1311 versus Jones at 1175. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Onama has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 7.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Onama has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mason Jones over David Onama. The model is firm on this one: Jones at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Jones at 78% implied while our model sees 87% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tabatha Ricci (6-3) taking on Maria Oliveira (1-2). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Ricci is rated at 1355 — 563 points above Oliveira's 792. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ricci throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tabatha Ricci over Maria Oliveira. We're leaning Ricci here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Jamie Pickett (2-6) taking on Laureano Staropoli (2-3). Pickett will look to use a 9-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Staropoli at 801 versus Pickett at 673. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Staropoli throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Staropoli has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Laureano Staropoli over Jamie Pickett. We're leaning Staropoli here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 34% for Pickett, but our model sees only 28%. That 6-point gap favoring Staropoli is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Jai Herbert (3-4-1) taking on Khama Worthy (2-2). Herbert is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Herbert is rated at 1014 — 233 points above Worthy's 782. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Worthy throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Worthy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Worthy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jai Herbert over Khama Worthy. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Herbert at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 62% for Herbert, but our model sees only 53%. That 8-point gap favoring Worthy is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Jeff Molina (2-0) taking on Daniel Lacerda (0-4).

Molina is rated at 1201 — 582 points above Lacerda's 619. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Molina throws significantly more leather — a 12.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lacerda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lacerda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeff Molina over Daniel Lacerda. We're leaning Molina here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Molina at 60% implied while our model sees 66% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Randa Markos (6-10-1) taking on Livinha Souza (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Markos at 974 versus Souza at 857. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Markos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Souza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Souza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Markos throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Livinha Souza over Randa Markos. The model gives Souza a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jonathan Martinez (10-4) taking on Zviad Lazishvili (0-0).

Martinez is rated at 1343 — 418 points above Lazishvili's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Lazishvili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zviad Lazishvili over Jonathan Martinez. The model gives Lazishvili a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Martinez, but our model sees only 44%. That 4-point gap favoring Lazishvili is worth watching.