UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
Saturday, September 18, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·14 fights
Model: 13/13(100%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightHIT
Anthony Smith won by Submission (R1)
Smith 58%42% Spann
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEANMarket: 61% (-3.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +165(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Spann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Spann)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ion Cutelaba won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cutelaba 58%42% Clark
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 56% (+1.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -11(favors Clark)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.1(favors Cutelaba)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Ariane da Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 56%44% Bohm
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -72(favors Bohm)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bohm)
LightweightHIT
Arman Tsarukyan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tsarukyan 88%12% Giagos
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 85% (+2.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +313(favors Tsarukyan)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Tsarukyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Giagos)
BantamweightHIT
Nate Maness won by KO/TKO (R2)
Maness 53%47% Gravely
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UPMarket: 35% (+17.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +117(favors Maness)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Gravely)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.7(favors Gravely)
MiddleweightHIT
Joaquin Buckley won by KO/TKO (R3)
Buckley 73%27% Arroyo
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+5.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +227(favors Buckley)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Buckley)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Buckley)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Tafon Nchukwi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nchukwi 71%29% Rodriguez
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 54% (+17.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +83(favors Nchukwi)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Nchukwi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Nchukwi)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Raquel Pennington won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pennington 50%50% Kianzad
Over/UnderOver 68%
Under 32%Over 68%
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (-3.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +8(favors Pennington)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Kianzad)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Pennington)
LightweightHIT
Rongzhu won by KO/TKO (R3)
Rongzhu 63%37% Jenkins
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -183(favors Jenkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Rongzhu)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Rongzhu)
BantamweightHIT
Montel Jackson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jackson 87%13% Buys
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+4.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +581(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Jackson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.9(favors Jackson)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Erin Blanchfield won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Blanchfield 80%20% Alpar
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+7.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +293(favors Blanchfield)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Alpar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Alpar)
WelterweightHIT
Carlston Harris won by KO/TKO (R1)
Harris 60%40% Kasanganay
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 45% (+15.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +91(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Kasanganay)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Kasanganay)
Bantamweight
Lopez 43%57% Alatengheili
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -145(favors Alatengheili)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Alatengheili)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Alatengheili)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Hannah Goldy won by Submission (R1)
Goldy 52%48% Whitmire
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+5.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -110(favors Whitmire)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Goldy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Whitmire)