UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
Saturday, August 21, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 10/12(83%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Jared Cannonier won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Cannonier 60%40% Gastelum
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEANMarket: 56% (+4.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +126(favors Cannonier)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Cannonier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Gastelum)
LightweightHIT
Mark Madsen won by Decision - Split (R3)
Madsen 62%38% Guida
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 61% (+1.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +19(favors Madsen)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Guida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.2(favors Madsen)
HeavyweightHIT
Parker Porter won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Porter 53%47% Sherman
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+15.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +38(favors Porter)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Porter)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Porter)
BantamweightMISS
Saidyokub Kakhramonov won by Submission (R3)
Kakhramonov 43%57% Jones
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 42% (+1.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -328(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Jones)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Jones)
LightweightHIT
Vinc Pichel won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pichel 53%47% Hubbard
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-1.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +324(favors Pichel)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Hubbard)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Pichel)
FlyweightMISS
Alexandre Pantoja won by Submission (R2)
Pantoja 42%58% Royval
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 60% (-18.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +189(favors Pantoja)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Pantoja)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Pantoja)
Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
Austin Lingo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lingo 67%33% Saldana
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 48% (+18.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -131(favors Saldana)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Lingo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Lingo)
BantamweightHIT
Brian Kelleher won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kelleher 51%49% Pilarte
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-9.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +346(favors Kelleher)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Kelleher)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Pilarte)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Josiane Nunes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nunes 52%48% Malecki
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+10.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -218(favors Malecki)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.8(favors Malecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Malecki)
Light HeavyweightHIT
William Knight won by KO/TKO (R1)
Knight 66%34% Cherant
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+5.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +247(favors Knight)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Knight)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Knight)
LightweightHIT
Ignacio Bahamondes won by KO/TKO (R3)
Bahamondes 56%44% Roberts
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 41% (+15.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -239(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Bahamondes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Roberts)
WelterweightHIT
Ramiz Brahimaj won by Submission (R1)
Brahimaj 73%27% Palatnikov
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+13.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -38(favors Palatnikov)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Palatnikov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Palatnikov)