UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
Saturday, August 21, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightHIT
Jared Cannonier won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Cannonier 61%39% Gastelum
LEANMarket: 56% (+4.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +152(favors Cannonier)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Cannonier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Gastelum)
LightweightHIT
Mark Madsen won by Decision - Split (R3)
Madsen 60%40% Guida
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +99(favors Madsen)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Guida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.2(favors Madsen)
HeavyweightHIT
Parker Porter won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Porter 50%50% Sherman
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+12.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +61(favors Porter)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Porter)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Porter)
BantamweightMISS
Saidyokub Kakhramonov won by Submission (R3)
Kakhramonov 46%54% Jones
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+3.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -190(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Jones)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Jones)
LightweightMISS
Vinc Pichel won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pichel 46%54% Hubbard
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-8.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +292(favors Pichel)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Hubbard)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Pichel)
FlyweightMISS
Alexandre Pantoja won by Submission (R2)
Pantoja 49%51% Royval
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-10.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +158(favors Pantoja)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Pantoja)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Pantoja)
FeatherweightHIT
Austin Lingo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lingo 60%40% Saldana
LEANMarket: 48% (+11.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -81(favors Saldana)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Lingo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Lingo)
BantamweightHIT
Brian Kelleher won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kelleher 52%48% Pilarte
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-8.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +242(favors Kelleher)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Kelleher)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Pilarte)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Josiane Nunes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nunes 47%53% Malecki
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+5.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -154(favors Malecki)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.8(favors Malecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Malecki)
Light HeavyweightHIT
William Knight won by KO/TKO (R1)
Knight 61%39% Cherant
LEANMarket: 61% (-0.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +148(favors Knight)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Knight)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Knight)
LightweightHIT
Ignacio Bahamondes won by KO/TKO (R3)
Bahamondes 67%33% Roberts
CONFIDENTMarket: 41% (+26.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -153(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Bahamondes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Roberts)
WelterweightHIT
Ramiz Brahimaj won by Submission (R1)
Brahimaj 62%38% Palatnikov
LEANMarket: 60% (+2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -87(favors Palatnikov)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Palatnikov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Palatnikov)