UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Ciryl Gane (10-2) taking on Alexander Volkov (12-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Volkov.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gane at 1884 versus Volkov at 1754. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Gane's all-rounder game against Volkov's striker approach. Gane is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Volkov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gane throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Gane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane over Alexander Volkov. The model gives Gane a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Gane, but our model sees only 57%. That 3-point gap favoring Volkov is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tanner Boser (4-5) taking on Ovince Saint Preux (15-12). Preux will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Boser carries a modest Elo edge (984 to 917), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Boser's striker game against Preux's all-rounder approach. Boser brings a versatile approach, while Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boser throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Preux is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Boser has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tanner Boser over Ovince Saint Preux. We're leaning Boser here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Timur Valiev (2-0) taking on Raoni Barcelos (9-4).

Barcelos is rated at 1410 — 305 points above Valiev's 1105. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barcelos has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barcelos throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Valiev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Barcelos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raoni Barcelos over Timur Valiev. The model is firm on this one: Barcelos at 82%. The market implies 34% for Valiev, but our model sees only 18%. That 16-point gap favoring Barcelos is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (12-11) taking on Daniel Pineda (5-7). Fili is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Fili is rated at 1140 — 161 points above Pineda's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Fili's striker game against Pineda's wrestler approach. Fili brings a versatile approach, while Pineda looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Fili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Fili over Daniel Pineda. We're leaning Fili here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Tim Means (15-13) taking on Nicolas Dalby (7-5-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Means.

Dalby is rated at 1283 — 411 points above Means's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Means's all-rounder game against Dalby's striker approach. Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dalby brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Means over Nicolas Dalby. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Means at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Renato Moicano (12-6) taking on Jai Herbert (3-4-1). Herbert is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Moicano is rated at 1542 — 527 points above Herbert's 1014. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Moicano's submission artist game against Herbert's striker approach. Moicano is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Herbert brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moicano throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Herbert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Moicano over Jai Herbert. The model is firm on this one: Moicano at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Moicano at 68% implied while our model sees 76% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6) taking on Danilo Marques (2-1). Nzechukwu will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Nzechukwu is rated at 1071 — 205 points above Marques's 866. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nzechukwu throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Marques is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Marques has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu over Danilo Marques. The model gives Nzechukwu a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Nzechukwu at 53% implied while our model sees 58% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Shavkat Rakhmonov (6-0) taking on Michel Prazeres (10-3). Rakhmonov is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Rakhmonov is rated at 1831 — 674 points above Prazeres's 1157. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Rakhmonov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rakhmonov throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Prazeres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Prazeres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shavkat Rakhmonov over Michel Prazeres. We're leaning Rakhmonov here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Rakhmonov at 71% implied while our model sees 74% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Jeremiah Wells (4-2) taking on Warlley Alves (8-7).

Wells is rated at 1254 — 359 points above Alves's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Wells looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alves is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Wells the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Wells has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Warlley Alves over Jeremiah Wells. We're leaning Alves here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Prachnio (4-6) taking on Ike Villanueva (1-4).

Prachnio is rated at 818 — 166 points above Villanueva's 653. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prachnio throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Villanueva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Prachnio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Prachnio over Ike Villanueva. We're leaning Prachnio here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Julia Avila (3-2) taking on Julija Stoliarenko (2-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Avila at 933 versus Stoliarenko at 842. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Avila is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stoliarenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Stoliarenko the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Avila throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Avila is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Avila has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julia Avila over Julija Stoliarenko. We're leaning Avila here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 75% for Avila, but our model sees only 68%. That 7-point gap favoring Stoliarenko is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Rosa (5-7) taking on Justin Jaynes (1-3).

Rosa carries a modest Elo edge (817 to 768), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jaynes throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Jaynes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Rosa over Justin Jaynes. The model gives Rosa a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Rosa, but our model sees only 57%. That 4-point gap favoring Jaynes is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Damir Hadzovic (4-5) taking on Yancy Medeiros (6-7). Medeiros will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Medeiros at 999 versus Hadzovic at 882. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medeiros throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hadzovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Hadzovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damir Hadzovic over Yancy Medeiros. We're leaning Hadzovic here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Hadzovic at 57% implied while our model sees 67% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.