UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Michael Chandler (2-4). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 527 points above Chandler's 1319. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Chandler is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chandler throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Chandler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Michael Chandler. We're leaning Oliveira here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Oliveira at 55% implied while our model sees 68% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Tony Ferguson (15-8). Ferguson will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dariush is rated at 1437 — 372 points above Ferguson's 1065. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dariush is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Ferguson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dariush the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Tony Ferguson. The model gives Dariush a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Dariush, but our model sees only 59%. That 4-point gap favoring Ferguson is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Matt Schnell (7-7) taking on Rogerio Bontorin (2-2). Schnell is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Schnell at 899, Bontorin at 880. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bontorin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Schnell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Schnell over Rogerio Bontorin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Schnell at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Schnell, but our model sees only 54%. That 6-point gap favoring Bontorin is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Katlyn Cerminara (11-5) taking on Viviane Araujo (7-5). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Cerminara.

Cerminara carries a modest Elo edge (1283 to 1207), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Araujo throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Araujo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Cerminara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Katlyn Cerminara over Viviane Araujo. The model gives Cerminara a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Shane Burgos (7-3).

Burgos is rated at 1365 — 224 points above Barboza's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burgos throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barboza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Barboza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shane Burgos over Edson Barboza. The model gives Burgos a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Andre Muniz (6-3) taking on Jacare Souza (9-6). Muniz will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Souza is rated at 1187 — 153 points above Muniz's 1034. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Muniz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Souza is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Muniz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Souza throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Muniz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacare Souza over Andre Muniz. The model gives Souza a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Lando Vannata (4-6-2) taking on Mike Grundy (1-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Vannata at 898, Grundy at 897. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vannata throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Grundy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Grundy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lando Vannata over Mike Grundy. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vannata at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Vannata at 47% implied while our model sees 54% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jordan Wright (2-4) taking on Jamie Pickett (2-6). Pickett will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Wright at 693, Pickett at 673. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Wright's submission artist game against Pickett's striker approach. Wright is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Pickett brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wright throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Wright has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jordan Wright over Jamie Pickett. The model gives Wright a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Wright at 50% implied while our model sees 57% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Andrea Lee (5-8) taking on Antonina Shevchenko (3-4).

Shevchenko is rated at 1027 — 163 points above Lee's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrea Lee over Antonina Shevchenko. The model gives Lee a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lee at 46% implied while our model sees 55% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Priscila Cachoeira (5-7) taking on Gina Mazany (2-5). Mazany will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Cachoeira is rated at 903 — 207 points above Mazany's 696. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cachoeira's striker game against Mazany's wrestler approach. Cachoeira brings a versatile approach, while Mazany looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cachoeira throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Mazany is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Mazany has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gina Mazany over Priscila Cachoeira. We're leaning Mazany here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 34% for Cachoeira, but our model sees only 28%. That 7-point gap favoring Mazany is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Tucker Lutz (1-2) taking on Kevin Aguilar (2-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lutz at 852, Aguilar at 869. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aguilar throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Aguilar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Lutz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tucker Lutz over Kevin Aguilar. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lutz at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Christos Giagos (6-7) taking on Sean Soriano (0-4).

Giagos is rated at 940 — 247 points above Soriano's 694. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soriano throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Giagos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Soriano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christos Giagos over Sean Soriano. The model gives Giagos a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for Giagos, but our model sees only 62%. That 4-point gap favoring Soriano is worth watching.