UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Saturday, May 15, 2021·Houston, Texas, USA·12 fights
Model: 10/11(91%)
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Main Card
LightweightHIT
Charles Oliveira won by KO/TKO (R2)
Oliveira 64%36% Chandler
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 55% (+9.3% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +402(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Chandler)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Oliveira)
LightweightHIT
Beneil Dariush won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dariush 67%33% Ferguson
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+4.5% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -92(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Dariush)
Bantamweight
Schnell 55%45% Bontorin
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 60% (-4.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +157(favors Schnell)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Bontorin)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Katlyn Cerminara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cerminara 63%37% Araujo
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +18(favors Cerminara)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Araujo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Araujo)
FeatherweightHIT
Edson Barboza won by KO/TKO (R3)
Barboza 53%47% Burgos
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+8.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +90(favors Barboza)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Burgos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Barboza)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Andre Muniz won by Submission (R1)
Muniz 53%47% Souza
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -147(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Souza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Muniz)
FeatherweightHIT
Lando Vannata won by Decision - Split (R3)
Vannata 58%42% Grundy
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 47% (+10.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -32(favors Grundy)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Vannata)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.6(favors Grundy)
MiddleweightHIT
Jordan Wright won by KO/TKO (R1)
Wright 54%46% Pickett
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
TOSS-UPMarket: 50% (+3.4% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +71(favors Wright)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Wright)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Pickett)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Andrea Lee won by Submission (R2)
Lee 69%31% Shevchenko
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENTMarket: 46% (+22.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -234(favors Shevchenko)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Lee)
Early Prelims
Women's FlyweightMISS
Priscila Cachoeira won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cachoeira 42%58% Mazany
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 34% (+7.5% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +66(favors Cachoeira)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Cachoeira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.5(favors Mazany)
FeatherweightHIT
Tucker Lutz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lutz 59%41% Aguilar
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
LEANMarket: 52% (+6.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +79(favors Lutz)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Aguilar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Aguilar)
LightweightHIT
Christos Giagos won by Submission (R2)
Giagos 54%46% Soriano
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UPMarket: 66% (-11.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +464(favors Giagos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Soriano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Giagos)